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pritchh
Senior Contributor

advisories

    In my 30 yrs experience I see the biggest question facing advisories is concentrate in being right, intellectually honest or go with sentmment give them what they want-  bull biased views.

Tt is harder to sell straight honest views, fewer recognize it.

 

2nd common flaw is an advisory who really has ZIP talent, probably knows it and  finds it easy to spout views, and sell some subscriptions. There are NO fast in-out winners in thuis game. Just becaue somneonee grabs 8 cents in corn 5 Xs straight means zero. i. there is vig, bid/offer spread, commission, before even being 50/50.    China boiyght, egypt bought too much,  corner of Brazil lost 1 mmt wheat. Ain't going to cut it. HOTLINES with buy/sell recommendations, intra day - reveals the lack of elementary knowledge of this game.  

I don't know who can net add to one's decision making. There may be value in thoughtful analysis which you might use to reseeses your views.

But overall  ? What do you think ?

 

 

 

VanTrump- With "Index Funds", "Swap Dealers", and "Hedge Fund Managers" taking over the agricultural markets it has become imperative that you have access to the best information and insight in the industry.  Having someone on your team that knows and understands how these traders operate and who has reliable contacts in the global marketplace will prove to be essential. Clients pay just $40 per month for direct access to all of my "insider information".

 

VanTrumpter just one example: 

Begs the question if the author does not know what an "Investment Bank" is, how would he know how "these  traders operate" .   Insider informtion if truly defined as insider is in violation of US securuities laws.  Not to be too personal, or is that a comeon?

 

At the base and in the end ag futures are supply/demand markets look out the horizon, the truth a moviing target, always just past the mist.

Index funds see inflows and outflows, their length equals artificial demand, a gift to porducers, a premium to earn. Swap dealers, are on the outs since 2007-2009. Effect on corn beans, wheat, nix. Hedge funds many more participate than 10 yrs ago. They don't "make" markets, ir deterime price trends, they try to ride trends and fundamentally evolving market equations.

 

Insider knowledge for HITLINE day trading?

If I weretrupVan I would email enforcement@cftc.gov and run his ads, reports by them and ask if all is kosher.       

 

 

 

 

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3 Replies
Palouser
Senior Advisor

Re: advisories

How are you going to play your wheat position the markets went against? Your advice is to sell the rallies. You going to hold and keep the faith that the seasonal means it goes back down or get out? Or did it stop out?

 

Curious since this is a good time to consider your thinking.

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pritchh
Senior Contributor

Re: advisories

Not following you. The wheat market did not go against me. Wheat has been in a bear market since July 2012 when it topped from being artificially inflated empathic with rationing corn supplies.  Other highs:  Aug 2010, Russia stopping exports was and would be again be bearish. See, review the Talk Threads at that time. Feb 2011, don’t recall the exact backdrop, was that importers in panic mode? If yiou produce wheat it is your job to supply demand, if XYZ is out loading up, sell some.

               My personal involvement in wheat is as a small spec. My market view into 13/14 is there is plentitude. Repeated here too many times - High prices incite high planting nas expansion and once mo nature cooperates we swing to bear modes, the mkt needs to find a price to clear supply.

               Always confused by you, you act new. Markets don’t just go in one direction, in a bear, there are rallies, rests and the same in bull mkts. My view- From here, 1/5 the mkt is shifting to being a true bull mkt. 3/5 the rally peters out and resumes the bear. 1/5, it is trading range.

 

“Your advice is to sell the rallies.”  The marketing approach “not trying to be a hero” says yes sell some crop. It matters not why the mkt rallied, it has, reward it. Are you a spec trying to jump aboard some momentum player or you want to buy as trend type funds are covering? Be my guest.

“using stops, stopping out, is a misnomer, it is playing, you either want to be in the mkt or out. A hedger hedges, period. A spehas to manage his risk. r“” You going to hold and keep the faith that the seasonal means it goes back down or get out? Or did it stop out?””  Nothing in common with your thinking, I don’t use faith to make decisions in grains but principle and attempt to stick to principle. The ultimate absurdity is to react to market moves. Is the market trading you – a bear market rallies so you would question your position. A marketer should market not play. If a SRW producer is 50% sold and the market rallies X, go to 70% sold and accept the consequences. You can’t think at 30 cents higher I shoulda’,or 30 cents lower, good thing,  Once marketed that % is over. Someone who hedges then un-edges, then ,,,, whipsaws his account and mind, and  that point isn’t a hedger, but a mere spec.

Seasonal, please don’t bring up the subject again unless you understand the meaning 1st. The seasonal for wheat is higher prices of an un-grown crop, equals premia in price. Early in the new year and in concert with C and S late march/ early April. A producer earns by selling that uncertainty ( on avg- it is a seasonall!!!). The % he might forward is related to his balance sheet and chosen risk profile. 15 to 25% coming into the growth period of Apr May Jun. Again hard to believe but you would know the seasonal deep into harvest or just post is not down but up. Un-hedged too bearish of sentiment is bled out.

               No exact answer, the approach is a generality. Past harvest and onto the marketing year, reward demand and yes, sell into rallies, working off your supply because, in no time here comes another crop.

“Curious since this is a good time to consider your thinking.” According to whom? Repeating the thinking is principle based, the approach doesn’t change. Yes as a spec I can be and expect to be wrong % of the time.  To run around changing strategies or chasing some headline that has no statistical meaning ( have there been 100 here?) isn’t anything close to how I see act or participate.

CBT SRW 9.47-6.23, now 708  

You have me refreshing my stance, yes, a good time, if we see 728 WZ within the next 2 days, it deserves an above avg short position looking for 50-60,  and then reassess.

 

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Palouser
Senior Advisor

All I wanted to know was ....

Smiley Wink

 

Pritch/Artie, all I was asking is what you you did/didn't do with your 'Filled, sold WZ3 6.93' a week ago. just a simple answer. I'm not sure what your above post indicated. Maybe that you are keeping the position since you trade on principle.

 

You posted your trade so I was just inquiring.

 

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