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hardnox
Advisor

another tough night

Another yuan devaluation and stock trading halted in Shanghai. Dow futures currently off 150 on the news.

 

See how the thing rolls around the globe but isnt feeling real encouraging.

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6 Replies
BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Re: another tough night

A cheap Renminbi will make Chinese exports even cheaper and the grain that we try to sell them, higher.  So, Siri navagation is telling us there`s a fork in the road and "keep right at the fork"...Janet Yellan is driving, does she continue to defend the Petro-dollar and take us to the brink of depression ....or does she "keep right at the fork", print money and shed the irrational fear of a little inflation and start making helicopter drops? 

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elcheapo
Veteran Advisor

Re: another tough night

Well i'm setting here looking at all the down arrows shortly before midnight......asia is down 300, sp about 180 down, oil is

down.......china devauled the yen........egads.........sounds like everything is going to $%^! in a handbasket

only bright spot....seems there is trouble with wheat round the world...worry of winter kill overseas and here.....and egypt

has told the frenchies where to go, due to finding some ergot in wheat from them.....so we might get some extra business there.

oil is also down tonight.

I never did notice gold.  i would guess that in time of worry, there is a flight to quality, so american dollars and gold.....

at least that's the way it used to be !!!!

 

having problems getting data about the cftc reports.....i guess i'm having problems there peroid.  from what i understand

that is a good thing to watch, since it tells you which way everyone is leaning.....two things come to mind....they all

can't be wrong, and the trend is your friend.  i've seen a chart showing that data, along with large, small invest and

funds.......but how often is the data published.....weekly or daily ?

 

maybe i'm wrong.....but maybe doing some "position trading" might be a good thing to start to think of........

 

how low can we go......we we continue to go down.......maybe if the world melts down....but let's be logical.....someone is

going to step in one of these days to stabilize things...tomarrow, next week, next month.......i don't know when, but it

will be done........the world economy can not go to zero.

 

maybe placing some bets on some calls, a bit out of the money (buy calls), and do it just as cheap as possilbe, and

put them away in a drawer..you may need several months tho, so buy ones a ways out........

 

what's ya think gio ?

 

of all.....i think oil has the possibility to take off like an airplane........if somone right now in the middle east, passes gas at

the wrong time.......we could see some really wild stuff, since we are at historic prices, so to speak.

 

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elcheapo
Veteran Advisor

Re: another tough night

opps  george soros at meeting at sri lanka says world markets are at a beginning of a crisis.....

 

pass the 7 & 7 and cheese popcorn this way.......might need it for a while

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roarintiger1
Honored Advisor

Re: another tough night

Here's your buying opportunity.   The only trouble is, no one seems to know when it will be over.

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giolucas
Veteran Advisor

Re: another tough night

Elcheapo,

 

Patience.  Let all this bullsheet get out of the way.  Is it a buying opportunity?  My view is that I look at price levels like pain levels: If I buy Soybeans right now, at 8.61 what is my upside, 5, 10 cents?  Are funds long and is weather the driving force to get this thing up?  No, I do not think so.  

 

China stock market shutting down or halted causes panic all over and unfortunately, commodities have been the step child.  I see more fear and I see lower highs and lower lows, which means downward trend.  Let this thing stabilize a bit and then jump in with both feet forward. I am in no rush to lose money so just waiting for some positive news.   I will heavily jump in if I see confirmation that things have stabilize or we reach levels around 8.40-8.25 March Beans. 

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hardnox
Advisor

Re: another tough night

You should have been sending christmas presents to the Chinese leadership when the country spent maybe $25T, pubic and private,  over the years after the financial crisis.

 

A great opportunity to get houses in order for what is to come although that's always easier to know in hindsight.

 

But it is sorta like back in 2006 when I'd scratch my head and wonder just how it is that unemployed meth cooks were getting 0 down mortgages (see, or better read, The Big Short).

 

In this case it was stats like, in those few years China used more cement than the US did in the 20th century. ???????

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