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Senior Advisor

anyone wanna come to the 12.2 and 3.2 camp?

if the 6-14 day comes true


watch out


the gate isnt big enough when reality of this crop finally sets in, and frankly I hope it rips the face off every clueless blood sucking trader and marketing advisor that truly believes trend is 167


10 year avg is 152 and 42.  I am not sure we have anything above average at this point.

7 Replies
Honored Advisor

Re: anyone wanna come to the 12.2 and 3.2 camp?

MT, With your 10 year average numbers at 152 and 42,  I think that the corn might be a little better than that. Less corn acres planted and what was planted was on the better acres.   However, soybeans were planted this year on all those flex/marginal acres and it will take a small miracle to reach 42 nationwide. We shall see.

The marketplace is very complacent and seems to need proof constantly that the total bushels produced might be less than ideal.

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Veteran Contributor

Re: anyone wanna come to the 12.2 and 3.2 camp?

If you think the market is wrong

My advice is to get long

If you don't want the margin risk, then buy some calls

Sell some out of the money puts if you want to have less invested

I can think of no reason why a person would not want to do something, now, if you think the market is wrong

The only other option might be to wait for the harvest low, if you think that price may be lower

So far, the sellers have lost their momentum, every time, at this price

Might go lower, but might also be the price to be long

This is where you might want to be making some decisions, even if that decision is a wait and see

At least do some thinking at this price

I would not be a seller, but maybe a buyer would not be such a bad thing to do

It all depends on how you market your crop

Everybody is different, but try and profit when the market is wrong

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Heck w Ya. how bout the 11.8 and 2.4 Camp?

granted she's a lonely fire in the remote....just kind feel that RARE Early frost comeing on. been pretty Dam chilly in the SW High country mornings for 3 to 4 weeks now. kinda think ole el nino is gonna keep thee Extremes a Rollin ... she all gonna wake up smellin like silage bout end of Aug, 1st part of Sept. We'll See. Perhaps IL, IN, OH, MO etc gonna have to "carry" the "record USA Total" corn/soy crop? We'll see. SA is Done...probabilities of them even having a Half a crop with this el nino are pretty dam slim, MO.
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Re: anyone wanna come to the 12.2 and 3.2 camp?




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Frequent Contributor

Re: anyone wanna come to the 12.2 and 3.2 camp?

It's more like 12.8 and 3.4
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Frequent Contributor

Re: anyone wanna come to the 12.2 and 3.2 camp?

No.  I've been to NIA, MN, WI, NIL/CIL.  LOTS of good to superb corn.  Not enough detrimental weather going into the homestretch at this point to justify going quite so low as 12.2.  Soys, way different animal.  Between PP, drownouts, replants, weed pressure, SDS, well who knows.... but they have a steep hill to climb in the next 60 days.

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Senior Advisor

Re: anyone wanna come to the 12.2 and 3.2 camp?

Corn might be down in production or it might not it's not my place to judge, but there are plenty of substitute crops grown in the fringe areas that will be used in place of corn to make the overall final production numbers stretch farther than what we are led to believe with USDA's reported numbers.  Mainly sorghum but there are plenty of other good forage quality crops that will take the heat off the corn for feed supply.  Heck, even cover crops are creeping up in total acres seeded many of which are either grazed or hayed.


Probably not what you want to hear, but corn can be down in production without making the carryover or surplus seem devastatingly low.  Just my perspective.

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