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hardnox
Advisor

bean problem

If you dial in a 49+ national bean yield you have to work the demand side hard awful hard to get things very tight- really you have to count on China exceeding the projected 87 mmt imports (which some believe is plenty aggressive), or SA weather.

 

Basically that would require China deciding to build government stockpiles- they might but I have no indication that is in the cards.

 

At the same time you've still got a large spec long position in beans and meal.

 

I don't expect that USDA will be very aggressive with yield tomorrow and if anything may be a little friendly on the demand/stocks side.

 

The market has thus far held the 200dma which is probably the line in the sand for funds. That may continue for a while if we get a neutral/friendly report and there is a mild strong seasonal tendency here.

 

But I just think the weather has been too darn good (a little early, let's see these rains and even the ones that show up in the 8-14) but the weather case for a big bean crop seems even stronger than for corn.

 

Final question. The 8-14 is cool in the middle of the country. Plant progress in the N. Plains was mostly pretty normal (a bit of SE SD aside) so I think frost risk is below average, but I guess that might be the next to last hurdle. Anyone from up there tell me if I'm wrong in the assessment.

 

Final hurdle would be to get them in the bin- we might have an Argentinian harvest but again, not a high probablitity bet.

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6 Replies
BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Re: bean problem

Well, beans have a good appearance, nice color, chest high, but that doesn`t tell me much my beans look like that every year, if it`s a "poor year" I get 45, if it`s a good year I get 50  🙂   Those around will have crappy looking beans, thigh high, lime green and ragged ..but after the combines roll, they said "70 Bushel per acre!!!!Smiley LOL  ".    So, I don`t know, it`s a long ways until September 30.

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hardnox
Advisor

Re: bean problem

As I've said, it certainly all is a bit premature.

 

But I suspect there are a lot of people in denial about the implications of this.

 

Sometimes the weather is good, which is apparently a tragedy.

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roarintiger1
Honored Advisor

Re: bean problem

 The price is the real tragedy.

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hardnox
Advisor

agronomic arguments

I'm well aware of the agronomic arguments for why corn yields might not be as high as ratings would suggest, although I've offered some counter arguments vs. the analog years proffered.

 

But I have to be open to those considerations.

 

Assuming rains play out roughly as forecast I'm at a loss to find parallel argments for beans.

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Jim Meade / Iowa City
Senior Advisor

Re: agronomic arguments

I'm the world's worst on calling bean yields.  For my little area of the earth, what I see is good height, good color, no major disease or insect outbreaks.  There are a few weed outbraks but most fields are pretty clean.  We continue to get good rains.  There have been a few hot, muggy days, but not an unusual summer.

 

In short, I don't know what to say about soybean yields on the upside, but on the downside there are few of the indicators we associate with drag.

 

What am I doing about it?  I'm short SV and staying there for now.

 

 

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hardnox
Advisor

Re: agronomic arguments

My general view is if none of those drag factors are present to a large extent and the lawn is green around mid-August, you'll have good bean yields. True even if plant date was a little later than you'd like, even if that does cap the upper end a little.

 

I also think the upward creep of bean yield potential hasn't been adequately acknowledged.

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