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hardnox604008
Veteran Advisor

bean yields

Broad anecdotal info is running just a spositive on bean yields as it is negative on corn yields. There are exceptions both ways in both cases but It think that is clear.

 

Anyhow, bean futures just keep getting stronger. The guys who have to come up with a fundamental justification at the end of the day can do so because they have to.

 

But I'd submit that all commodities, and equites, and junk debt etc. are being buoyed by the "risk on" trade that absolutely caught fire when da boyz thought they'd gotten a wink and a nod from Bernanke a few weeks ago.

 

Nothing predicitve here other than to caution not to get caught up too much in "the yield is this, carryout is that" talk cause I think it is all moe about spec flows and at this point, momentum created by it.

 

My prediction- the risk trade will turn very risk adverse sometime.

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3 Replies
zman343
Frequent Contributor

Re: bean yields

It's all about the money flow and it looks like it will continue to flow into commodities regardless of fundamentals.  Just as one can argue grains should be where they are because of bullish fundamentals, some commodities such as crude oil should be much lower than current prices due to bearish fundamentals.  When the money flow stops or they go to booking profits the markets will drop sharp and swift.  Until then it's all green lights.

 

The Fed can do all the QE it wants but just look at Japan and a chart of the Nikkei.  It has been trending lower since the late 80's.

 

Hopefully people are taking advantage of these great prices.  Trusting the markets to keep going your way is like going to a casino and betting on Red every time at the roulette wheel.

 

On a sidenote I think crude oil will be the next wave of investment money as energies have been the big underperformer.  But I also believe that Euro is about done on its current run and the intervention in the Yen will allow the DXY to get a recovery bounce.  Not a trend change and I think it eventually tests trend line support near 76.  But when the DXY corrects higher, commodities could see some weakness.  I'll be looking to buy crude and some other stuff at that time.

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hardnox604008
Veteran Advisor

Re: bean yields

Quarterly index rebalancing would direct some money from the best performers- grains and softs, to the worst, energies. Makes sense.

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Re: bean yields

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