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best guess on QE 3 and Sun nite

and just that only.

 

Private polling has been banned in Greece before the election which I have to conclude means that they are avoiding the inconvenience of having any contra indications before the predetermined outcome is announced in favor of the status quo. So I'm not expecting the world to end Sunday night.

 

Also have my doubts about whether yesterday's "coordinated effort by global central banks" comes to fruition, or also at least not yet. First, if Greece stays in line, probably no need to expend the ammo.

 

But also I'm inclined th believe that the Fed may just in fact be penned in politically- heaven knows what hue and cry would arise if they hit 'er big before the election. Rick Perry might even fly up to Wash and give Ben the Texas whooping that he threatened. I expect that the Fed will protect its own institutional positiion.

 

So actually I'd guess that a "positive" outcome in Greece won't be viewed as that positive if it doesn't mean more meth but that may not be permitted to sink in until after the Fed mtg. and announcement mid-week.

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7 Replies
Senior Advisor

Re: best guess on QE 3 and Sun nite

I'll guess that whatever happens on the national ledgers around the world, and in somke filled rooms (is that passe now?) that the grain commodities are in the grip of weather markets and will be driven by weather until at least August with little considerations of economic gamesmanship.

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Senior Contributor

Re: best guess on QE 3 and Sun nite

With Greece, it's anyone's guess.  With QE3, I'd have to agree that Helicopter Ben will not unleash anymore juice until after the election.  It must be noted that by not unleashing more juice we're already witnessing somewhat of a stimulus.  Fuel prices have come down, and this will reverse rather dramatically if we see QE3.  I read a couple of days ago that 30% of the cost of a box of mac'n cheese is fuel cost for transport.  The dollar more than likely will continue to drift sideways to higher which will somewhat keep a lid on commodity prices in here. 

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Veteran Advisor

Re: best guess on QE 3 and Sun nite

Greece is done! that will be the beginning to the end for Euro.
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Senior Contributor

Re: best guess on QE 3 and Sun nite

Hi Gored I hear that theory too. My calculations say that a truck getting 10 mpg on $3.50 fuel hauling 50000 lbs can haul a ton for $.014 a mile. So they can go 1000 miles for $14 a ton for fuel. That's $.007 a pound for 1000 miles. What does a box of mac and cheese weight?

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Re: best guess on QE 3 and Sun nite

Greece has been done for a long time but hard to know exactly when the PTB accept the fact.

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Honored Advisor

Re: best guess on QE 3 and Sun nite

Greece would look good next to California.  Let's grant them statehood.  Improve our economic status on the west coast.

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Senior Contributor

Re: best guess on QE 3 and Sun nite

I'm not sure what a box of mac and cheese weighs, but I think you might want to tweek your formula.  The industry average for fuel mileage is quite a bit less than 10mpg.  Last I checked, it was around 5.5mpg.  Second, van trailer and reefers can only handle roughly 45,000 pounds due to the extra weight of the trailer.  According to triple A, the national average diesel price is $3.773. 

 

I'm really not sure what all calculations were used, but I'd guess they included the transport of all the materials used to make mac and cheese as well rather than just the final freight bill after it's made and boxed.  This is what is so difficult for me to wrap my mind around how we can ship components from here over to China, have them assembled, shipped back, and then transported store to store cheaper than just assembling them here. 

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