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[Hobbyfarmer]

Sold some corn a while back and wanted to start delivering tomorrow.

Well it ain't gonna happen. They are full. 

My question was are they buying that much?

The answer was almost all of it is on price later.

Looks like we are in full HOPE mode in this area.

Can never remember a time you could not sell and deliver 

corn this time of year.

[Jameshh1964]

Good greeeef....wish it was organic! Phone is ringing off the hook and I don't even sell corn!
Crazy disparity in price and demand between organic and conventional....
James

[Hobbyfarmer]

Local organic mill is paying $13.50+

I have ground that has never ever been farmed and can not be used as an organic profit center as it floods on an average of once a year and sometimes more often.

Not a market I can tap.

[hardnox]

That would tend to suggest that the heavy spec short is somewhat balanced by speculative grower "longs."

BTW, if by price later you mean what I'd term DP, that corn is fully available to the market if the commercial wants to accept the basis risk.  Farmers really should advocate for banning the practice although if turkeys want to keep Thanksgiving, who am I to argue?

Difference between the spec long and short is, I suppose, that money will run the spec shorts out of the market if price action dictates. For the spec grower holdings, they'll certainly hold tight and power the thing higher if a problem arises but if markets continue to leak away they'll just dribble a little out and then puke at the end.

A lot of the game left to play but I'll give the latter scenario a slightly higher probability.

[timetippingpt]

Great point about DP hard one.

[FARM4FOOD]

not much corn in my area co-op says sales of corn seed down 40 %  they are looking for crops to fill all the bins they have been building  we all need to take a page out of the oil sector when price falls below cost of production just stop where you are dont buy inputs

[sw363535]

Hobby the question I have is...... who Is the corn refered to as "inventory full" controlled by??  

We had a lot of end user crop taking up space and still have some in a ground pile fully controlled by an ethanol plant.

Even if it is price delayed it may already be committed to the market.

Little different these days, locally the end users are more willing to pay storage than the producers. 

[rayjenkins]

the elevator taking in the price later corn is going to be careful about using/selling that corn and end up being short the basis against the farmer who has yet to price it.......even moreso when there is a 15 cent carry in futures from July to December...

now, if ownership via basis contracts or physical gets tough, they will have to make a decision about whether to up their bid, or dip into the price later stocks...

in the end, they would rather be late to making that decision to short the PL basis, and know it will end up being a one-way trade in their favor--instead of being stuck in never-never land wondering if/when to pull the trigger

[Hobbyfarmer]

Here in Iowa price later grain that has been delivered to the grain buyer, be it an elevator, feed mill, e plant, etc. Is a trust deal,

Title/ownership is transferred from the farmer, he just trusts that he will be paid sometime in the future, 

This grain is exempt from the grain indemnity fund, he will be at the bottom of the unsecured creditor list if something goes wrong.

I have to wonder how much is listed on loan documents.

Suppose the credit company signed off?

The other side of this is I had time to deliver some contracted grain and was told "we are full" 

What about some customer that needed a bill paid and needed to deliver some corn to do it? 

Seems the coop is not taking care of all its members.

I should charge them storage and lost opportunity costs. Inital minimum 10¢/bu storage, another 15¢ /bu special handling 

Then there is the $100 an hour stand by charge.

[kyu2852570]

Hobby you can't possibly be in the camp of needing to deliver corn to pay a bill. ...