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Veteran Advisor

can udsa officals face charges ?

Thinking today, i know i shouldnt do that. looking at the wheat markets and others, and getting that sick

stomach feeling.  The question is, how did we get here ?  The overwhelming answer is "usda reports", or data,

and such things as data about other world grain supplies.

this has a significant impact on rural america.....usda itself says almost a 50% decline in income.

 

BUT....how many times have we seen "updated" or "corrected" values entered a few months later,  what about a resurvey

done this year, which is rare.

 

the question is, these "mistakes", have caused us farmers millions upon millions of dollars.....if you update, or correct,

you made a mistake, a mistake does not excuse you from an action which is negative to you.......

 

if you have a car accident, and you say you made a mistake, does that excuse you ?  no.

 

yet, we have a group that have a significant impact on us, and it is due to mistakes.........

 

in most industries......this is considered actionable.........hey you young lawyers out there, want to make some

money, and make a name for yourself, maybe you should take a long, hard look at an actionable incident.

 

maybe we should all think about this for a while.

 

after all, look at syngenta

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8 Replies
Veteran Contributor

Re: can udsa officals face charges ?

I would be happy if we could just tar and feather them.

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Honored Advisor

Re: can udsa officals face charges ?

Being the government means never having to pay for your mistakes.  Crop forecasting is very subjective, they always have "test weight" or "too warm nights" or "cloudy days" then the magical "300 million bushel" fudge factor, all that stuff comes to light only after the new crop in the next year is up and growing.  The thumb is definitely on the scale of those that buy grain.  Those that buy grain can always say "Well, that`s what USDA says" and shrugg their shoulders. 

 

But how you prove that USDA wasn`t trying to have a accurate report would be pretty tough.  That`s is probably why there`s a whole cottage industry of being a bear and being short the market most of the time.   The odds are in the favor of the market generally being down, the bears recognized that trend and make a buck or two off it.   "the bull needs fed every day"   "rain makes grain"   "don`t bet against the American farmer"  ..and all that stuff.

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Senior Contributor

Re: Why? sorry but your theory of

"actionable" is pretty lame. guesstemates are guesstemates. should farmer's face "actionable" charges? for anything...opinions are opinions. should your weather prognosticators face "actionable" charges? heck they never miss. LOL
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Advisor

Re: can udsa officals face charges ?

Can somebody tell Ishmael to get a life? Thank you. I didn't know we were in kindergarden.

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Advisor

Re: can udsa officals face charges ?

By the way Mr. Moderator, I didn't know marketing  agricultural products was in the one-way politically correct division. I guess when that XinXinXiu dude figures out how to sell his flour mills on here again  then we might be able to have discussions in the marketing section .

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Senior Advisor

Re: can udsa officals face charges ?

You have to prove they knowingly and intentionally conspired to, and actually did, make money themselves (not the off shore account of their wife) by manipulating the market. If you can't prosecute Lois Lerner, or Hillary, with a mountains of evidence, you won't get some statistician at USDA. Incompetence of a government official is not a criminal offense, actually it is expected :-).

 

The real issue is the changes that are made in DC after they receive the state data. No harvested acreage reduction due to flooding for example? With carryouts this tight, they make these 300 mil adjustments on a whim, and then the market has to fly around to rebalance. Using normal ear weights for the eastern belt for example will have to come out of the data sooner or later. As will the thousands of acres of PP in the eastern belt which is still considered planted in current data. They didn't adjust for that, but they did add yield in IA/MN/NE because of their weather model? It is just arbitrary is all, not illegal.

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Honored Advisor

Re: can udsa officals face charges ?

Time,   Your entire post is the sad, sad truth.

 

We all should expect better.

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Senior Contributor

Re: No matter what numbers the USDA puts out

You are not compelled to take low prices. Every transaction takes a willing seller and a willing buyer. If we aren't willing sellers the deal don't happen. Lock the bin doors shut until the buyer comes to his senses.

 

The same thing about high cash rents. You will never pay outrageous cash rents if you don't sign the lease. Think your rent is high? Think about the guy that bought the land for $10K per acre at 5% interest rate and real estate taxes added to that. So he is paying about $525 per acre for the pleasure of farming that land.

 

 Then consider that we may not have a bumper crop but we may have enough to satisfy the demand. That being the case you just might have to settle for less.

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