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hardnox
Advisor

charts

First, skimming ahead to what most are probably interesed in, grains.

 

Friday's action was very constructive to the idea that major lows are in place. Earlier in the week C and S took it right to the absolute limit, a possible wave 2 retest in S right to the exact 100% retracement point, C within .25. The rally offf those levels is starting to take on an impulsive look.

 

Better yet- a very deep Wave 2 tends to set up powerful 3rd waves as "the crowd" obviously didn't beleive in the Wave 1 low and now will have to scramble.

 

I'd counsel patience at this point.

 

Biggest picture, there's evidence building that there's a very large degree low in the CRB. Every action has an equal and opposite reaction and we were going to have to go through the painful liquidation of all the dumb money that flowed into commodities on the front end of the boom. Doesn't mean we're going anywhere near those highs again for many years but the worst pressure from that area should be off.

 

Contradicting that a bit is the DX which ideally will still go lower near term- maybe the 92 area?- and would give some extra push to this first commodity recovery- but ultimtely looks to need another new high. That would probably coincide with a soft patch in comms later in the summer/fall.

 

The 26 low in crude is looking better. Demand will start to pick up here although the big short interest is already paring back. The story is the collapse in US rig count and beginning of  drop in US production. But we're still seeing world production well above demand and I'm having some trouble with the story in the intermediate term. But I'll go with the chart.

 

 

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7 Replies
Hobbyfarmer
Honored Advisor

Many must not be waiting

Our local Gavalon terminal must be full of beans. 

 

Thursday they shut off price later.

 

10.29am today they sent text .... No more beans, call before coming tomorrow.

 

On local bto still has 2600 acres to combine of beans.

 

They did a half section of corn the last few days. Local farmer thinks they got a third of it in the combine. Left lots of tracks, can you say compaction and reduced yields this year too?

bkadds
Advisor

Re: charts

Hobby--never grown beans. How do they stand for this long after the growing season?
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Hobbyfarmer
Honored Advisor

Re: charts

Usually there would be mostly stems, just need one wet snow we haven't had... yet.

 

Have been told they requested an extension and got it from the normal Dec 15th harvest date from Fed crop. Too big to fail?

 

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timetippingpt
Honored Advisor

Re: charts

So Hobby the better response to them being granted an excemption would be to have you, your local farm bureau, or other farmers, adn anyone else who you can find, file a complaint with state RMA. File a complaint with the state FSA director. Do a press release. Have some facts. Did everyone else get finished harvesting by the deadline? IF not, you are out of line bemoaning an extension.

 

Every time I meet with our Senators, state FSA director, et al, I hammer the fact the no one doing fall tillage should get a crop insurance subsidy. Or alternatively, anyone planting cover crops should get a much lower premium. It will take time, but facts and politcal heat do in fact create change in America, even now. 🙂

 

If no one files a complaint on your "local BTO" (whatever the heck that actually is these days), he has done nothing wrong and does not deserve your derision.

 

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hardnox
Advisor

PS

Worth noting that last week's lows in C and S are now, even more than ever, critical support.

 

If we break those levels then you'd better beleive what your lyin' eyes are telling you.

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Hobbyfarmer
Honored Advisor

Re: PS

Time, in this case he/ they are Bto' s any one with appropriate 20,000 acres gets that designation. 

 

Yes only them and one other entity with about 14,000 didn't get er done. Kind of sticks out. 

 

I must have missed it where I said someone should have a bitch season.

 

Thought it was closer to a report of what is happening in my back yard. An extension is a legitimate 

 

Part of the rules, not something special just for them this time.

 

I've been from here to California and here to Florida, here seems to be where they didn't get r done.

 

This is not a forgiving area when the weather gets against you.

 

A few of the landlords are not thrilled there farms are the only ones in the neighborhood unharvested,  yes it maybe is cash rent... still looks shoddy.

 

Must be some efficiency of scale I don't know about? 

 

Looks to me as if it is taking care of it's self. 

 

Did/do you also defend Stamp farms too?

 

I have a very dear friend that farms way more then these guys, do you hear me saying he or anybody else shouldn't be allowed to farm as much as they can or want?  Might have been the year to recruit some custom help?

 

Just get r done....

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timetippingpt
Honored Advisor

Re: PS

Defend Stamp Farms? We actually brainstormed on ways to beat him with guys in that area back when he was taking away everyone's farms. No, pretty sure he was justly rewarded for his illegal, incompetent behavior.

 

My point simply was that since NO ONE ever officially complains and points out the ridiculous nature of the decision, the rules don't really exist, therefore, (every area has at least one bto by someone's standard...in Indiana Granular just hired one of the BTO's to be the local Granular salesman...must be he was getting rich farming 🙂  ) your BTO will get a competitive advantage from government. Too big to fail...yes indeed. The way to stop that is to put pressure on the regulators/polticians/bureacrats is all I was saying. Bureacrats do not take criticism well, very thin skined, they will respond over time.

 

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