chinese stock market parabola

[hardnox]

http://www.clivemaund.com/article.php?art_id=3493

As I've said before, parabolic blowoffs are one of the chart patterns you should never ignore. Falling out of the parabola was the tip for the Naz in 2000, crude in '08, silver in '11.

The failure in the Shanghai comp needs to be noted. But it is also trickier than say, silver, as it is their big enchilada and thus a collapse will be fought tooth and nail. We'll see.

The #1 reason for the degree of global economic recovery since '08 was an historic debt expansion in China. We'll see how all that plays out.

A crash or grinding bear in chinese equities would probably be negative commodities although base metals (already hard hit) and energies would probably be worse than grains. But a general negative tone woldn't help, either.

[BA Deere]

They talk like China is struggling, yet they have a 7.1% growth.  their stock market has went down, but they are growing.  This country, our stock market had been booming yet we seem to always be just one quarter away from a recession.

If this 7% growth rate of China is so bad and may drag us down too, what about India?  Might their 7.5% growth rate bail us out?    Jai Ho!

[juliedavis91849]

ja, Hardnox...PBOC's spraying of infinite fiat from their power sprayers shows leakage in their hoses...

The market is reacting in spite of all this liquidity being sprayed..

RED alert...imploding gambling den.

Bull Brethren, most likely planet wide alert to follow...

Over and Out

Gottlieb

[hardnox]

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-07-03/chinese-stocks-plummet-despite-government-threats-shorts-eu...

Maund's guess that we might see a bounce from a possible neckline area was reasonable but didn't happen- cut through it like TP. Also only a best guess but might see a retest bounce of that broken support or might just do a Titanic imitation.

As far as US markets and the fallout to comms, a much bigger deal than Greece but I really don't like the combination of the two.

FWIW, I used yesterday's rally to pull the short let of some SP put spreads I have on. No reason to have a high deductible on the insurance policy when an ice storm is coming.

[juliedavis91849]

off your article..find Chen's twit...

✔ @george_chen

State newspaper backed by PBOC named Morgan Stanley a foreign bank with "suspicious purposes" in Chinese stock market

11:34 PM - 2 Jul 2015

Gottlieb's spin off.... global DE-dollarization..worth your time reading, Hardnox-

http://journal-neo.org/2015/02/02/rus-dedollarizatsiya-i-ssha/

..........Alphas jerking China's strings..............

China's message..Hunt for manipulators

The China Daily newspaper said on Friday that the CSRC was probing investors who used stock index futures to "short" the market - or bet on prices falling.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/07/03/us-china-markets-idUSKCN0PD03020150703

Gottlieb's conclusion : ja, clear message here... don't try toying around with the alphas who clearly control this ponzi monetary system or punishment is coming YOUR way...

[hardnox]

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-07-03/bofas-dire-prediction-only-direct-government-buying-can-sav...

As I suggested. This stuff is tricky.

Wouldn't even rule out a global stock market blowoff as everybody breaks the code- the fact that governments got nuthin' except to ramp markets.

It's been true since Greenspan/Reagan first backstopped the CME stock futures and NYSE after the 1987 crash but it has been quite a ride down the road to perdition.

As I said, we might have a while more to party but in the end we'll have 7 trillionaires and 7 billion peasants. OK, that's a bit of an exaggeration- there will be a few decent positions for bodyguards, private jet pilots, yatch deckhands and courtesans.

[juliedavis91849]

as noted here :

China is suspending initial public offerings and creating a MARKET STABILIZATION FUND in the latest attempts to shore up its tumbling stock market...

and here, ja : The move came hours after major Chinese brokerage firms pledged billions of dollars to form a STOCK MARKET RESCUE FUND.

Some could see this whole bubble bursting and predicted as such...

A survey by China’s Southwestern University of Finance and Economics found that two-thirds of new investors last year did not complete high school. Hence, there are valid concerns that these risky bets could turn sour for these inexperienced retail investors, thereby disrupting the current rally,” Barclays explained.

http://www.scmp.com/business/markets/article/1773206/mainland-china-stock-mania-generates-17-trillio...

Conclusion : All red gambling dens are going to have to work a whole lot harder to get Mr. 张三李四 to stop fleeing from the casino and taking his chips with him, ja...

Even a blind Gottlieb, holding no sheepskin in "Bubble-ology" could see that once Humpty Dumpty fell from the Great WAll of China, he'd be so bruised and broken up into bits that China short term would be hit hard...

Now long term..sheep follow the herd and eventually it's wash, rinse, repeat the cycle...100% died in the wool, ja..

Over and out,

Gottlieb