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Veteran Contributor

Re: commmodity valuations

Gored, around here they are already not contracting 2012 grain.  You are right, the margin money is soon going to be hitting the wall.   Interesting times ahead.  We need a great crop in 11.

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Senior Contributor

Re: commmodity valuations

I have no problem selling into these higher prices, and for now I'll parcel it out a bit at a time. Reowning is having the deck stacked more against you. There is dead air until higher prices cover the premiums for any sane producer. Reowning now is the revelation of failure to take things into account in a marketing plan not flexible enough to ride a rising market.

 

Since I'm selling wheat I have no confidence it will break 2008 highs, which would would basically be a doubling. In 2008 wheat carried corn and beans to an extent. The favor could be returned since corn and beans have a stronger fundamental case compared to wheat this time around.Numbers that show an annualized production of 14 billion gallons is proof that only rising inventory is going to slow it down. Otherwise - full steam ahead.

 

I know of no wheat producer that thinks wheat will go above 2008. It could if it turns out that China really is going to be hurting from a drought further down the line. But it's only a trend worth watching for the moment.

 

At this point I see no reason for bailing. There isn't enough wheat in private hands or ebough tension in the market to predict anything more than occasional corrections. That might  be a factor in corn and beans until/if Argentina is finally straightened out, and yet potential has already been pulled off the table for corn there and beans need to make it home.

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Senior Contributor

Re: commmodity valuations

gored, the military is the only place to cut that makes any difference, why do we need troops and bases in 140 countries? we spend more on the military than the rest of the world combined,and we still grope grannies and babies at airports. seems we have forgotten the words of george washington," friendly trade with all and entangling alliances with none" since 1913 we have endured an unending series of alliances for the sake of promoting democracy, and it has bled us dry. its time to quit policing the world  and take care of america first. let all those other countries sort out their own issues. change comes from the inside not the outside. but left on our current path, change will come from the outside for good ole us of a. nobody will buy our debt and debt is what runs our current structure. i dont want to go on a rant here(dennis miller), but instead of the fed goosing the stock market so that somebody feels good enough to buy another big screen tv, lets build something here!! goose main street not wall street. get rid of the rules thatsent all those jobs to china in the first place. we cant get rich doing each others laundry, which is what the vaunted services economy is. it takes new money to grow wealth and that can only come from production and savings and we are sadly lacking in both capacities. just one mans opinion.

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Senior Advisor

Re: commmodity valuations

What do you mean the weapon that the world has never seen. Don't you think we have that capability? You mean to say that we spend ten times as much on  defense as China does and they have superior technology? I doubt that.

 

I think if we didn't have enemies or the threat of them, we would have to create them out of our imagination to justify the horric amounts we are wasting on national defense/offense. There are far more American people that will live shorter lives because of inadequate health care than will ever live shorter lives because of international conflict.

 

But then that is just my opinion.

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Senior Advisor

Re: commmodity valuations

Maybe we can put 75% filler in our taco meat at home so we can export the rest ? 

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Frequent Contributor

Re: commmodity valuations

dap,

 

I don't think you will get what you want "until" americans start voting with their pocket books.   As long as everyone is buying el cheapo, aka taco bell filler etc., we will continue our equity burn slide into the obyss.  Or perhaps when wall street goes pro ameican, but since that isn't their most profitable trade I don't see that either.  Thank goodness they can't export our dirt, not yet at least.

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Senior Contributor

Re: commmodity valuations

The problem is far too many people do vote with their pocket books rather than voting for the good of the country.  We all know we have a huge debt problem, yet the surveys show 60% of Americans are against cutting spending for gov't entitlement programs. 

 

"The United States will pay more for the interest on its debt that it does on the military in six years, and unless deep spending cuts are implemented, the country may lose its AAA credit rating. The debt-reduction commission made several recommendations to reduce the growth of the national debt by 50 percent, and yet 60 percent of Americans oppose such changes."   The rest of the article can be found here:  http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Johnson-How-the-State-Budget-cnbc-1086148407.html?x=0&sec=topStories&p...

 

It's hard to feel too sorry for those on the unemployment line as they drive their foreign car off to Walmart where 90+% of the goods sold there are made outside of the U.S.  Great Value is one of Walmart's popular brands for food items.  Right on the side of a bottle of juice made by Great Value it says made in China.  It's somewhat hard to argue with the logic of CEO's of big companies.  Take Steve Jobs for example.  His salary is very meager as most of his compensation comes via company stock.  They figured out quite a while ago that they can make their companies more money by shifting business outside of the U.S. than building things here in the U.S.  I wonder how many people on the unemployment line own stocks in these same companies via their 401K's? 

 

Here's an article I came across this morning that I believe every producer should probably read:  http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Are-Insiders-Picking-a-2011-minyanville-169762650.html?x=0

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Frequent Contributor

Re: commmodity valuations

Exactly right, ( i see i spelled 'abyss' with an o, must be losing it.,)  I can't stand wal-mart!  good business practices...   it is so sad that good business includes turning america into a shadow of its former self, so that the money changers can live like queens and kings...   You know farmers may be the last man standing, and that may never change given the "lay of the land." and our unique position in the world, weather, soil, the ogallala aquifer, the unique weather in the corn belt on deep top soil, etc." but what fun will it be if everyone else ends up in the poor house?   I haven't given up yet on buying all american, if at all possible, it is getting pretty pricey, but still possible.   Perhaps you know the answer, but is there an "OUTSOURCING TICKER" just like the national debt ticker, where it shows how many jobs are exported daily, and by whom, and what sector? 

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Senior Contributor

Re: commmodity valuations

I don't know about the outsourcing ticker, but things get pretty hazy in a hurry with regards to buying all American.  For example, I read an article that stated before the recession that Toyota produced more cars and employed more people in the U.S. than two of the Big Three did.  In 2010, GM sold more vehicles in China than they did in the U.S.  Where do you suppose they will build more factories and employ more people going forward?  It doesn't take a rocket scientist to see why we're witnessing a jobless recovery.  The profits made by U.S. companies aren't being made here because of business in the U.S rather they're being made from business overseas. This is why they aren't hiring people here in the U.S.   

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Frequent Contributor

Re: commmodity valuations

The story behind the story on that GM number from china, 95% of the parts and labor for those cars are chinese.  so american workers need not cheer that one...   another victory for  the money men, yippee!!    Instead of no child left behind, which is a crock, how about no employee left behind!  The other issue here is, until the insurance companies and the gov't tell the medical industry, we aren't paying your ludicrous bills anymore, the steady march of jobs leaving will continue.  They call farmers the welfare queens, then what in the world do you call an industry whose entire bill is paid by insurance or gov't subsidies?  well that is an exageration of sorts, some people do write checks, if they have to go.

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