commmodity valuations

[chipster22]

@Jim

I didn't know much if anything about these ghost cities before today, but Time Magazine did an article on them back in April.

http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,1975336,00.html

[dapper7]

gored, and they will be used somwhere. thanks to one family one child policy, they are headed for a demographic collapse, ie not replacing themselves. the japanese and the russians are also in this boat. the only reason the usa is not in the same boat is because of the influx of our southern brothers. france is less than one generation away from a muslim majority. yassir arafat said that the biggest weapon he had against isreal was the wombs of palestinian women. in the long run demographic trends trump everything. back to my first point, i pray that those 39 million are not used against us. fwiw

[Palouser]

Unfortunately the site zerohedge has an axe to grind. It's not exactly obective.

[GoredHusker]

China has 3.4 million active duty military people compared to the U.S.'s 1.4 million.  They possess a kill weapon the World has never seen:  "The Chinese have the capability of destroying a U.S. supercarrier in one strike. Because the missile employs a complex guidance system, low radar signature and a maneuverability that makes its flight path unpredictable, the odds that it can evade tracking systems to reach its target are increased. It is estimated that the missile can travel at mach 10 and reach its maximum range of 2000km in less than 12 minutes."

While I also hope China doesn't use its military against us, I have to wonder if they're not fighting us who exactly are they going to be fighting? 

[sonoma72]

Gored,

I wouldn't get too worked up over the chinese military, unless our government totally sells us down the river, but who knows, anymore everything is for sale.  I guess I wasn't too concerned over their stealth fighter since we have had that technology since the 80's, i am surprised someone didn't sell them the tech years ago.  The b-2 was first displayed in november 1988, which means the tech was around long before that, actually a wwii german design, i believe.  Last year on the history channel they were saying we plan to have 150 fighters and 100 tanks with laser weapon tech, that can hit a target 40 miles away, without warning. this was by 2013, i believe.   I would suspect that we start subsidizing the Indian military long before there is any direct threat to us, of course if we go broke, then who knows.    Perhaps the chinese are so smart that they can "bite the hand that feeds them," and get away with it.

[dapper7]

sonoma, uhm, we are broke. unless someone can pony up 110 trillion bucks to take care of the unfunded liabilties. this is using gaap accounting rules that all USA corporations must use. but not the feds, they still use a cash accounting system. and as farmers we know there is no chance for any shenanigans there.  any #s coming out of dc have been run thru more grinders than a batch of braunschwiegher. to paraphrase groucho marx, who you gonna believe? the govt? or your own two eyes?

[sonoma72]

Well if you are suggesting soverign default, then perhaps that is a conversation that we should have.  If everyone thinks if the fed goes belly up, if the dollar is no longer the world reserve currency, then everyone better think twice that there lives are going to go on as if nothing is going to change, because it will change dramatically.  So bottome line, if the debt balloon  goes boom, then what?

[Rich in Mo]

I agree jec22.   I've had zerohedge type of info thrown at me all my life because of family backround, and it caused me to miss many oppotunities because of the "crash is upon us" mentality.   Sure you have to keep your eyes open, but you have to guard your thinking  from a negative mentality, or your whole life can pass you by without any accomplishment or enjoyment. 

[GoredHusker]

Sonoma,

I don't think war is inevitable within the next few years.  However, I do believe it is inevitable within the next 10-20 years.  The music industry is fighting hard against piracy.  China is the biggest pirate out there when it comes to technology.  When companies enter into China, they must give up their technology to the Chinese gov't.  The Chinese gov't then takes that technology and starts their own manufacturing making the technology cheaper. 

Here's where we cross the line in the sand.  If the U.S. gets back to being more sustainable in terms of producing our own goods, it will dramatically affect China and their increasing standard of living.  80% of all toys sold here in the U.S. come directly from China.  Basically if we get our jobs back, it will cast China back into the stone ages.  What do you suppose the Chinese gov't will do with 1.3+ billion starving people?  My best guess is they do what the Germans did by taking over their neighbors before they let the people revolt against the gov't.  The bubble being created in China is there because the gov't doesn't know what to do with 1.3+ billion people.  They're building these ghost cities and such just to keep people employed or working.  Once upon a time, they were going to try to mechanize their agriculture.  The project stalled once they determined how many people it would put out of work.  They still transport grain in baskets moved by people.  One truck capable of hauling 1000 bushels would nearly displace 1000 workers. 

The million dollar question is whether or not the Chinese gov't can bailing wire and gray tape things together until they start to reap the rewards of their one child only policy.  Unfortunately, this will take decades rather than years and I just don't think they have that much time left.  The other problem as I see it is the fact that our country is full of debt.  At a time when tensions will start to escalate, I fear our gov't will start to make drastic cuts to our military and to developing new technology for weapons.   

[smokeyjay]

Most of the world's economies are in the same boat.  China has fewer options to move unilaterally than we think.  Their real estate market, high rise building markets, are overheated.  Some factories are idle, thanks to the recession in the U.S. and elsewhere.  Greece is floundering.  So is Spain, Iceland and to a lesser extent, Ireland.  Germany holds much of Europe's debt, making its own economy susceptible to any hiccups elsewhere.  The Euro is said to be going into oblivion,soon.  We'll see.  India is holding its own, but similar to China, is dependent on exports to maintain its economy, much like the U.S. is doing.  Russia's economy is unpredictable and undependable.  Turkey, Pakistan, Iraq, Afghanastan are not doing well as terrorists disrupt their economies.  South Korea seems to be doing okay.  North Korea is a joke, with many people starving to death and others unemployed and terrified.  Australia, Brazil, Argentina and Mexico are holding their own, but not making much progress.

So, what else is new....bottom line, if anybody rocks the boat, financially, economically or militarily, everybody's boat will take on water.  What good will that do if, say, China decides to pull back on food purchases or push its weight around Taiwan?  They will hurt as much as anyone.

Yes, America needs to get its house in order.  Let's do it, but make deliberate plans that will accomplish what is needed.