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06-19-2014 01:00 PM
CRB is gonna get a pretty good bounce off action in the energies the last few days and the big rip in precious metals today. PM's led the historic Jan-Feb rip (fastest swing from aggreagate way oversold to way overbought ever) and could again although the extremely oversold conditions that existed across most everything then aren't quite as uniform. We'll see, we could see a rotation out of stocks like then but my gut says that was a year to year event (taking losses in 2013, throwing the money back in in 2014. Almost certainly true in gold).
Seasonally it's about time for grains to bounce a little in anticipation of the June 30th acreage report and a peek at July weather.
I don't have a crystal ball but I'd guess not more than a 50% retracement in corn. Also guessing that USDA will find pretty ample planted acres (they've been exceedingly generous in giving incentive to plant most of the past few years) and more or less normal July weather (always the best guess barring strong indications otherwise).
I.e., I'll be finishing up preharvest selling on a rally back to the 4.80 area CZ. It will take a little excitement to get there, the key usually is to not get too excited.
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06-20-2014 12:46 AM
Help me get up to speed.
What is the CRB?
Stock market at all time highs. Economy strong?
If Dec corn gets to 4.80 (weather) do you think that gap at 4.97 would be tempting?
I haven't heard that joke before, but I have seen some cows out!
Thanks for your input.
06-20-2014 10:36 AM
CRB is a nearly archaic index bundle of commodities. I think it is valuable as a guage to the general attitude toward the complex.
The old joke: A young bull and an old bull are grazing along and come across a herd of nice youg heifers across a fence.
The young bull gets excited and says, "let's jump the fence and breed a heifer."
The old bull says, "think I'll walk through that gate over there and breed 'em all."