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hwr247
Senior Contributor

commodity prices

not sure how sub $4 wheat corn with a $2 in front number and $7 beans works. Back in 78 I sold wheat for $4.50 and a pickup was $7000 not $70,000 or $36,000 for a new combine and about the same for a new 4wd tractor.   Someone posted that markets are controlled by the traders pushing prices down and up in order to make money and i think thats true. The sad fact comes from us farmers  listening to the analysts this spring telling us  to seed every acre even tho we were past the late planting deadline because wheat is the sleeper crop with big price oppotunities! what a joke! In business when u count on a customer to buy most of the product u sell the last thing u do is piss them off! U dont bite the hand that feeds you. First rule of business! *****

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6 Replies
rickgthf
Senior Advisor

Re: Just because they say the crop is what they say it is, .....

This is going to be one of those years where just because they say there's a big crop coming we aren't obligated to automatically believe them.  Take a look at the drought map, not only has it been dry in western Iowa but across much of Indiana, Ohio, Penn. and New York as well.  That dry has certainly put a good deal of early stress on the corn crop and one thing we know about corn is that it doesn't really like to ever be stressed.  Now it may not extreme but I'm betting that the crop in Ind & Ohio, certainly in Penn and New York won't be any bin buster.

  Why am I saying that?  Because last year despite all the early rain in June and it was a lot, I had some of my best yields ever.  Why?  Because the soil profile was full until Aug.and the corn never experienced any lack of water.  Exactly the opposite this year, until recently my corn was rolled every day for weeks on end.

  I might be wrong but I intend to make them prove the yields are there before I sell anymore.

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rickgthf
Senior Advisor

Re: And remember, .......

And remember, the other thing that's happening here besides the Pandemic (and that's a big factor), this is an election year and historically all the markets go quiet a few months before the election for no other reason than the uncertainty over the outcome.  Historically, it didn't matter so much who won, just that someone won and that uncertainty was removed.

 Add the election on top of the Pandemic and that's a lot of uncertainty.

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crophugger
Senior Contributor

Re: And remember, .......

With the algorithms and the money these traders have it’s like playing a chess game against a computer and you know how that turns out. 
They could give a sh*$ where there food comes from but we’ll wake up one of these mornings and commodities will be up the limit for know reason at all rinse and repeat.

Agriculture employs a lot of people but a big share have never had dirt under their fingernails.

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sol1971
Frequent Contributor

Re: commodity prices

so many times, i have said that it isn't traders doing this, algorithms control the markets... if you want to really take advantage of the movements give my friend TJ Sphor a ring... he will help you with fair pricing for your harvest. This is his email tjspohr@ilcommodities.com

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sol1971
Frequent Contributor

Re: commodity prices

There's so many plays with options that it will protect your pricing on market movements... no shame on looking at something different... you never know... please keep an open mind... i bet anything you will be very happy with his approach.... 

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sol1971
Frequent Contributor

Re: commodity prices

You guys always talked about how it used to be 20 or 30 years ago...information travels faster than before... competition from other countries gives more options than before...everything changes nothing stays the same, i remembered in the nineties cells phones came along...and now smart phones...with just a click you can reach info from anywhere in the world... before you had to call your broker or whoever was marketing your crops... talk to the guy a mention before, he's already doing it with a few farmers around champagne 

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