cancel
Showing results for 
Search instead for 
Did you mean: 
Highlighted
Senior Advisor

copper and crude

two economic bellweathers, have had several nasty days in a row.

My guess is that the market is afraid- whether it turns out to be right or not- that the Chinese coronavirus is the real deal. SARS took a half point off world GDP and the world economy doesn't need that just when it "might" be gaining a little traction.

Stock market still surfing the tidal wave of Fed cash and if something is developing can remain oblivious far longer than other markets.

0 Kudos
8 Replies
Highlighted
Veteran Advisor

Re: I don't know about copper but when people ....

I don't know about copper but when people stop traveling due to fear or restrictions they use less fuel.  The Chinese use about 13 million barrels of petroleum per day for 1.3 billion people compared to our 20 million barrels per day.

0 Kudos
Highlighted
Veteran Advisor

Re: I don't know about copper but when people ....

Wuhan is 100% quarantined starting Thursday.

...and I can see why.  Doesn't look like the standard response to a run-of-the-mill coronavirus.

The death rate is said to be comparable to that of the 1918 Spanish Flu.

A suspected coronavirus patient was carried out of an airport in Huizhou, China, in a plastic tube on Wednesday to avoid exposing medical workers to the virus

I have been checking out N95 face masks on Amazon....just to gauge public response.  Prices rose 10%+ overnight on some brands, with delivery out as far as into March. 

0 Kudos
Highlighted
Senior Advisor

Re: I don't know about copper but when people ....

I have no expertise to offer but don't doubt the real possibility of a global pandemic (someday) of the magnitude that experts have long warned about.

Science deniers tend to reflexively scoff, but I doubt they're all just lying for the grant money.

Something of the greater predicted magnitude would easily drive world and US GDP into negative territory. Not good for the people dying (like me, for instance) but also not good for any of the 7B+ of us who all have about $86k of debt on our noses. 

Would be a game changer of tectonic magnitude.

Highlighted
Senior Advisor

Re: I don't know about copper but when people ....

BTW, not that anything would matter a great deal in that scenario but not good to enter into it having already blown off a 10 ga. double barrel blast of pro-cyclical fiscal and monetary stimulus.

0 Kudos
Highlighted
Senior Advisor

Re: I don't know about copper but when people ....

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=vix&insttype=&freq=2&show=&time=10

Just for giggles although I'm not sure anything matters in the face of the Funny Money Tsunami.

But every time I see VIX go up to that long term downtrend line and then sell off, I kinda salivate for when it doesn't.

0 Kudos
Highlighted
Senior Advisor

Re: I don't know about copper but when people ....

If a hypothetical global pandemic presented like the 1918 Spanish Flu where mortality was highest among young adults, that would be a catastrophe.

If it mostly just killed old people like me, not so much- the world could probably do just fine with a billion or so fewer.

0 Kudos
Highlighted
Veteran Advisor

Re: I don't know about copper but when people ....



With novel viruses, there is apparently a tendency to affect the healthiest among the population in the worst ways (especially as it mutates) because it is actually our own immune system that kills us --- example:  Ebola and Spanish Flu.

https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2014/08/26/342451672/how-ebola-kills-you-its-not-the-virus

https://www.livescience.com/48182-why-ebola-causes-bleeding.html

So just waiting to see which way this thing mutates.  (Spanish Flu is said to have mutated from a "flu-type flu" into the killer that it was.)

Wuhan is already pleading with their population and with their Powers-That-Be to donate medical supplies --> their 5-million hazmat suit request is disturbing, to say the least.

People are already fighting over food in Wuhan and are being turned away from the hospitals because there are not enough beds.  They are talking about closing all the casinos in Macau, and even Beijing has canceled their Lunar New Year celebrations -- that is huge!

Me and mine have already sent face masks to every one we care about -- while they are still relatively cheap and available -- with further contingency plans.

So our plan is to prepare for the worst but hope for the best. 

0 Kudos
Highlighted
Veteran Advisor

Re: I don't know about copper but when people ....

People might now be collapsing in the street....???   What the ....!!!

https://twitter.com/badiucao/status/1220374770308374528

 

0 Kudos