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hwr247
Senior Contributor

corn,beans and wheat bushels

If the dairy industry is dumping milk, hogs and beef animals are getting “too large”, and crude went negative and corn followed it down, maybe not to negative value but down none the less, what will happen to corn, beans and wheat if a huge crop comes along this fall? Where will these bushels go?  Piled on the ground after bins are full?  Even if  states open up it will take lots of time to get to full speed consumerism. It took most of the eighties to chew thru the huge supplies in the farmer owned reserve. The drought of 1988 and 1989 helped eat thru it all. In the 48 crops that i have planted and harvested it takes a big weather event to change a bear to a bull and its called a drought!

9 Replies
BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Re: corn,beans and wheat bushels

The streets of Woden and the streets of German Valley will be full.  🙂    Corn is the low man on the totem pole, i think the low prices will cure low prices on livestock ..to a point, I don`t know with 30 million collecting unemployment checks will be buying $20 ribeyes, when they already have a house mortgage and a 0% 84/mo car loan.  

Everybody planted corn..in the dust and the soil never worked better than this year.  We`ve had crappy conditions and still added to supply the last few years. Expectations have to be lowered and figure out how to survive on $2 corn.  But like I`ve said the last few years, we`ll be okay "this year" with RA crop insurance and PLC program..."but look out for next year!".  

rickgthf
Senior Advisor

Re: Funny thing, I don't know about everywhere but...

I don't know about everywhere but a funny thing happened here in New York. 

When the local ethanol plant shut down and dairy farms started dumping milk,  I thought the corn market would slow to a crawl but a funny thing happened.  The dairy farms needed to cut production about 10-12% which they did by cutting out the more expensive and hotter ration components like blood meal and DDG, replacing them with straight cornmeal.  Milk production per cow declined without having to cull the dairy herd so much.  I heard that the ethanol plant now is grinding corn for the dairy farms (rumor).

  Meanwhile, the other regional ethanol plant claims they switched over to ethanol for hand sanitizer, 150,000 gallons per day.  They're still buying corn so it must be true but how much I don't know. 

  As a consequence, the price of corn is down, for sure but it's not as terrible as I thought it would be and corn is still moving.

  We do have an advantage here that the cost of railroad freight does insolate us from the Midwest corn market to some extent.

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BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Re: Funny thing, I don't know about everywhere but...

I don`t know how to raise 300 bushel corn (I, do actually) but,  #plant2020  this is how it starts.  Unless Yellowstone erupts blowing ash all over, it`s going to be a burdensome supply.  New York dairies probably get all the corn they need for just the trucking.   Dave Hula and his 600 bushel yield will be commonplace.  🙂

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illinifarmer
Advisor

Re: Funny thing, I don't know about everywhere but...

Well here’s a little update on weather and planting conditions from Illinois.  Being mike and all theses traders are here and have yet to even mention a whisper of it.  75% of all planted fields are underwater 4-7 inches of rain the last 4 days.  The entire state of Illinois will be looking at huge losses for early planting acres.  Lots if decision making and replanting coming or maybe not.?  Soil temps just starting to approach 55 degrees so nothing that was planted was growing anyways.  Mild temps and more rain in forecast for next two weeks.  Should have waited until Mother’s Day, everyone is so nervous because of last years delays we’ll into June. When we were promised 5$ + corn and 10$ soy just to get out and throw it in the dirt in the middle of summer, then lost our assses with the latest wettest crop I had ever seen and sub profit prices.  Not looking good here at all fellas, hope it helps most of your info.  Seems to be crickets from our local analysts and traders.

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sdholloway56
Senior Advisor

Re: Funny thing, I don't know about everywhere but...

Too wet and late are going to be a hard sell after last year.

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illinifarmer
Advisor

Re: Funny thing, I don't know about everywhere but...

My point exactly a non issue.  However most in that position last year will never ever do it again. Definitely a learning experience, if the calendar runs late don’t even attempt it.  On top of that update can’t speak for everyone, but myself and most I speak with here locally don’t have any in storage.  No piles at coops no bins sealed up natta.  Mainly because of crop conditions during harvest were so poor it couldn’t be stored.  Major mold and fungi issues to anyone that attempted it.  I understand there’s plenty out there just not everywhere like we have all been told.

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BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Re: Funny thing, I don't know about everywhere but...

Sorry to hear parts of Illinois are too wet.  I see corn is up 4¢ now but I`m afraid there is just enough supply and good growing conditions in most places that we have to temper our price expectations.

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nitefarm
Advisor

Re: corn,beans and wheat bushels

Everybody has not planted in the dust. Too wet and cool in a lot of places East of the Mississippi and a lot of rain down south

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nitefarm
Advisor

Re: Funny thing, I don't know about everywhere but...

Quit typing all the time and drive around on our side of the river and see for yourself 

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