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Mizzou_Tiger
Senior Advisor

could 2013 be worse than 2012 in terms of soya.............

082913drought.jpg

 

 

 

 

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11 Replies
Mizzou_Tiger
Senior Advisor

Re: could 2013 be worse than 2012 in terms of soya.............

and remember the corn crop is a few weeks late..................so those maps are skinning yield on corn too...........

 

fields are still crashing left and right............as we speak...........

 

no doubt we have lost 1B in corn the last week............and probably 300M+ in soya............

 

 

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IllinoisSteve
Senior Contributor

Re: could 2013 be worse than 2012 in terms of soya.............

I think there is little doubt the soybean crop will be smaller than 2012. Just too many problems with them all year and now awful fill conditions for a lot of areas. 300 to 500 million off the corn crop in the last week.
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c-x-1
Veteran Advisor

Re: could 2013 be worse than 2012 in terms of soya.............

maybe 23% lower.

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DW11
Veteran Contributor

Re: could 2013 be worse than 2012 in terms of soya.............

I think it is a given that 2013 beans will average less than 2012 at this point.  There were a lot of bean crop saving rains in August last year and the beans did suprisingly well last year. 

 

This year with the lack of rain in August coupled with the extreme heat, we are going to have a lot of BB's for beans.

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c-x-1
Veteran Advisor

Re: could 2013 be worse than 2012 in terms of soya.............

if my numbers are close, China and other big users are going to want to get covered through the end of new mktg year ASAP- forget what SA MAY produce. US might only be able to ship 2/3-3/4 of what they have this yr closing out.

 

someone mentioned US has already booked half of USDA's projected exports - what's that? 700 mil??

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Wrestler
Senior Contributor

Re: could 2013 be worse than 2012 in terms of soya.............

Corn crop is better than last year. Soys are yet to be determined. Look at radar. Beneficial rain falling in a lot of places this weekend. 12b gone and 11b in jeopardy. Tired of arguing with idiots.
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ISUMan
Frequent Contributor

Re: could 2013 be worse than 2012 in terms of soya.............

The funny thing about this forum is even clearcut issues like radar are arguable.  There certainly weren't beneficial rains in "a lot of places this weekend".  Some areas did receive rain no doubt but it was not a widespread event, currently northern Mizz is the only place getting rain.  Whether someone is bullish or bearish just call it like it is.  Some bushels were saved over the weekend but not on a large scale.  For those that did get rain congrats.

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bullrider685114
Veteran Contributor

Re: could 2013 be worse than 2012 in terms of soya.............

1.5" rain last night....along with 3 minutes of nickle sized hail and strong winds. Corn still standing but severely weakened.  foliage shredded might be an earlier harvest than expected IF tonights predicted storms doesn't finish what's left off. Beans are wind whipped but should recover. Not sure how hail will affect them at this stage, but can't be a positive thing.

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ECIN
Senior Advisor

Re: could 2013 be worse than 2012 in terms of soya.............

Hey Bullrider - FINALLY got 6.5 tenths last night ! lol  -- Had one out flow from a big storm that went -- just north of us yesterday - wind -- 0 to 5 for bout 2 minutes - that was it -

 

Last year - most beans  averaged  48 - one farm of early numbers - made 33 bpa -- BUT after the last 22 days of no rain - I have to really wonder if they will be as good as last year . Will try and do some good counts this week and see if they are close .

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