good answer, Dismal Science!
first we have to even get to "WE THE PEOPLE", a leader, lover of America, an empowerer instead of a crippler, in short, an executive branch who INTENDS the things Dismal enumerated.
.....anyone, what does it mean for a producer to have product priced?
sw-before i know that answer, i'll go back to what i tried to say last night - comparing 2 products prices which are even involved w/ ea other. crude & corn. take an historical look. crude's avg price was about $20 before its big run began in 1999. it traded to over 7 times that price for a high, and is currently priced OVER 4 times $20. say corn's avg $3.00. it's highest price to date has been UNDER 3 times that avg, currently about 2.5 times. so either angle you look @ it corn is and since 2000, has been underpriced relative to crude.
i know, i know, there are plenty of other economic things at play, but at end of day, the actual economic tightness and value of food which is ALSO a fuel HAS to play out. it's a fundamental law of nature ( not to condasend) like the debate other night.
also, in uncertain economic times like now & historically, food eventually becomes the most valuable product, and tends to increase in value as political & other economic uncertainty rises....JUST IMO. also, IMO, this is where capital will go similar to gold/silver as paper (equities, treasuries, bonds incl), currency lose value.
Just plain wrong......
As we start to stretch capacity, it has finally started to be traded on some value instead of below COP......and maybe starting to level off or pull out of it......
We will likely see prices cycle lower for a bit at some point........but remember this.......we have pretty high prices in the middle of a world economy that is a sleep at best..........
What's this thing look like with a booming world economy.......150 oil.......and increasing incomes.......I would argue we have a huge amount of pent up demand........
Either way......as mentioned before.......next several decades or longer will be marked by a resource war.........water, land, minerals..........which all play into food.........
As for the short term......here's the deal.........corn is being rationed somewhat thru exports........so any appreciation in value will come from phyiscal thru basis........so if you have a month to price and need the money........pick a good up day and pull the trigger........corn is not going to 8 in the next month........as for new crop 13 corn, I would wait, or do small chunks.....IMO we could see a pretty good run between the Jan numbers and first stab at 13 acres.......
Then again, you have to define your situation and tolerance for risk.........as well as time table, storage and debt........all factor into whether 6 new crop corn that isn't even planted yet is a good sale or not.....
pull up a '69-'72 chart of beans and tell me it does not resemble 2008-current. I believe the current world coarse grains stocks/usage is below '73-'74. what do y'all think.
ES, CL finding bids tonight MT.
However we could see some building strength in wheat which will pull corn.......and soya have a dollar in them too........
All short term of course......but I think we could see a fair bit of money flow into Ag given the fundamentals.........bobblehead is probably viewed more favorable than romney for AG.........likely a hedge
We have it in storage under contract and priced. Some delivered to enduser storage, most in ours to be delivered in the next few months. Nothing has happened to improve our economic issues. And I am a producer, marketer, encourager of young farmers, but most of all I manage risk. Lots of unknowns ahead.
Thanks for the good questions. Its just my opinion------------ I think our legislation has been as extravigant as our spending habits.
To me it's a cost versus potential benefit ratio.
At some point on our economic slide, we are going to have to reconsider much of the legislation passed in the last 20+ years.
Just a couple of extravigance examples.
1. The Department of Homeland Security-------enormously expensive and total duplication of responsibilities already in place. The same can be said for the Education Department
2. Endangered species act--------the idea that the snale darters life is priceless is wrong-------they are very expensive. And here again most of the benefecial positive aspects of these laws were already in place. But the law is based on a false premise. Man is not fully responsible for the coming and going of species and has not the power or resources to direct it. We should take care of our world but not at all cost.
California----- was one of the top economies of the world-----we have to ask what happened eventually.
Well eventually we will find out our economy can't afford anything.
I think we are in danger, caused by our own arrogance. We will roll back some legislation or crater eventually.
Go town to town and look at main street or the local strip mall. Our industrial areas look like salvage yards. Those are not businesses that went overseas.
Sorry to make it so long Kraft. But I grow weary of the demonization of our employers.
Something that bothers me and you both ( I am assuming a little here)---Political contributions and lobby by big business. I don't like it.
But our views are probably different. For me it is extortion money and an old rule for dealing with a bully. If you are under attack, get as close to your opponent as possible. He can't hurt you as badly if you are involved in his election process and writing of the legislation.
Problem is when our economy was strong it was based on a majority of small businesses. Not the folks that can afford to court candidates.
The businesses gaining from this are going to be making a profit after our countries economy is gone.
"food eventually becomes the most valuable product, and tends to increase in value as political & other economic uncertainty rises."------ right
That comment reminded me of my dad telling me about being a small boy in the 30's. The family lived in a rented farm near a highway in eastern colorado. He said he thought his mother was such a generous person to have a pie or two always baked. When the car or truck load of people stopped by to ask for food she would give them one. She later told him she just got tired of loosing her chickens. They found a place to rent that couldn't be seen from the Highway.