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Veteran Contributor

Re: defcon five

You can't make a living as a liberal economist cause liberals don't understand economics. So Krugman has to throw in lots of liberal social bs.
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Veteran Advisor

Re: defcon five

The concept of leap days/years began in 45 B.C. Therefore the end of the Mayan calendar occurred on about July 25, 2011 back in calmer times when everyone had a much clearer sense of supply of grains.

Soooo, we got no doom & gloom to look forward to.

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Contributor

Re: defcon five

Maybe the Northren corn belt will have to embrace irrigation, laser grading, and tail water recovery like us in the south has done decades ago  I see no defcon this year  miss two years in  a row maybe  but there is corn and rice being harvested right now and beans being planted for this years harvest

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Re: defcon five

I know.  

 

thank God that now they're giving away Econ PhDs in Cheerios boxes so everything will get totally fixed soon.

 

Was actually referring to his point about probably 1 pt on US CPI for a year but bad news in other places.

 

But as a farmer I know who is also some sort of revered elder in a fundamentalist congregation told me back in '08, "those people were going to starve anyway."  

 

He has a point but nevertheless I have to give that a long bit of considering from a moral point of view.

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Senior Advisor

Re: defcon five

Interestingly i think there is common agreement that drought ended the ag system of the Mayans leading to a collapse. Insuring food sources often leads to conflict.

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Senior Advisor

Re: defcon five

So if we can find a 2015 calender we are good to go a couple more years?

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Veteran Advisor

Re: defcon five

I think the main thing i gathered from the 1 million pg dissertation of how solar activity effects climate is that we will begin a new ICE AGE 2015-2016????

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Frequent Contributor

Re: defcon five

"  I think food inflation, like energy inflation, is ultimately deflationary.

 

It just means that there is that much less demand for other things, that much less capcity to service debt, etc.  "

 


Exactly, and the central bank and the fed have done everything imaginable to maintain inflation in an effort to avoid triggering the defaltionary death spiral.

There is an end to every road. Brace for it.

Tom S. in Tn.

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Senior Contributor

Re: defcon five

Comparing 2008 to 2012 seems prudent to me.  It's getting more likely by the day that most developed economies in the World could end the year in a recession.  I've had a few fellow producers try to bet me when the insurance price is set this fall for corn that it will fall in between five and six bucks.  There has always been conspiracy theorists that claim the market is manipulated when those are calculated.  I'm not willing to follow that line of thinking yet, but they could very well end up being right for all the wrong reasons this year. 

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Esteemed Advisor

Re: defcon five

I posted in the other thread, but just to put it in the correct thread,

 

Nox is right on this. Food inflation is almost always asset-value deflationary (excluding land of course) especially in mature economies like the US and Europe.

 

Instead of getting all bulled up...farmers should be focusing on planning to defend what will be a very high revenue year for many. And what should be a very high revenue year in 2013 as well. The TIME is right for a high of decade long proportions. Of course the market will have to fly around like an uncontrolled stinger missile for a few weeks, but almost certainly over the next 15 trading sessions we will see the final highs in corn and beans. Are you ready...the REAPER has awakened.

 

If you have good insurance, staying unpriced at this point is awfully risky and awfully speculative.

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