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Advisor
Posts: 12,465
Registered: ‎02-06-2014
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did anybody get any CZ19 hedged today?

[ Edited ]

There's a really bad scenario that I can't handicap, but if the larger acreage of SA beans comes in well this winter, then we plant 7-10M more corn acres and that comes in, we're basically FUBARed.

 

That assumes that following Our Stormy Daniels Hush Money Payout there won't be an additional one coming, like for the 15-30 bimbos still to be named.

 

Gonna be a much more difficult political environment shortly.

Contributor
Posts: 11
Registered: ‎01-01-2012
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Re: did anybody get any CZ19 hedged today?

YOU sound like the USDA allways record crops. Mother nature has the final say!

 

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Veteran Contributor
Posts: 76
Registered: ‎05-18-2010

Re: did anybody get any CZ19 hedged today?

thought for myself.. started hedging / selling 2019 in April  ..May..  enough with the name calling slander crap  nox 

 

Senior Advisor
Posts: 1,155
Registered: ‎05-20-2010
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Re: did anybody get any CZ19 hedged today?

Never wise to sell multiple years of grain when the price is in the lower 30% of its

historic price range. 

 

Take your meds and plug a 173 yield in to the equation and you'll see the

upside might be a lot larger than the downside.

 

Also, pull up the rainfall accum maps for July, and then look at the forecast,

with no hurricanes on the horizon...

 

Local yield checks in many areas are quite disappointing from what I hear, of

course, if we say that...it means actually yields will be above expectations...

Advisor
Posts: 12,465
Registered: ‎02-06-2014
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Re: did anybody get any CZ19 hedged today?

Sorry, I'll refrain, at least here.

 

But it is egregious that farmers went all in for this and then got a pre-election payoff when it went bad.

 

Single moms getting food stamps=bad

A farmer who refused to let go of some overpriced rental ground= a victim

Advisor
Posts: 12,465
Registered: ‎02-06-2014
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Re: did anybody get any CZ19 hedged today?

I agree that you sure don't want to get into anything you can't get out of this early in the game.

 

We have thus far been pretty lucky with the ARG drought in particular.

 

There's a scenario where we won't continue to be.

 

I'm also annoyed that the POTUS was able to reach around the political gridlock that some of his biggest supporters have been key in creating and, apparently, do some of this stuff via executive authority.

 

Farmers have the potential to become very unpopular here.

 

BA's thing saying that it is great that 56% approve of the farmer payoffs is telling.

 

75% of Republicans, but you have to remember that 90% of Republicans approve of payoffs to prostitutes.

 

33% of Dems- they're the bleeding hearts who would give free stuff to anybody.

 

 

Veteran Advisor
Posts: 1,498
Registered: ‎08-04-2010
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Re: did anybody get any CZ19 hedged today?

Nox Ive come to the conclusion that liberal freaks like yourself truly hate America. All is well when their is a hiccup of some sort with this administration, but by God when things go right, its like the world is coming to an end and you people come out of the wood work. We are all sinners in this world, I don't care what Trump did in his personal life BEFORE he was president!  

 

Getting back on track with farm business. Why would anybody hedge 2019 beans at this point? We have a record amount of soybean acres, and crop conditions ratings are for the time being, pretty good. Most anything in business is negotiable, we must give trade talks time.  

 

On a personal note, please take your medication and lay off the CNN for a while. 

Frequent Contributor
Posts: 42
Registered: ‎06-04-2016
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Re: did anybody get any CZ19 hedged today?

By CZ I assume you are talking corn, not beans. I sold some July and Nov '19 corn back when the Argentina drought was still in the news. The July corn is at $4.08 delivered in Nebraska.

 

I will likely sell some new crop '18 corn this month as the corn looks good around here. But I'll bin all the beans I haven't already sold and wait for better prices.

 

I agree with some of the above sentiments:

 

 - if you're going to plant more corn next year, better sell at least the insurance protected bushels early.

 

 - This is a farming site.  Lets leave the politics to CNN and Fox.

Veteran Advisor
Posts: 1,498
Registered: ‎08-04-2010
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Re: did anybody get any CZ19 hedged today?

Erik, good catch! We have been talking about soybeans for so long that I didn't even catch that Nox was discussing corn contracts. I was still asleep at the wheel this morning Smiley Happy

Advisor
Posts: 12,465
Registered: ‎02-06-2014
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as far as a pork bailout goes,

which seems to be the only significant controversy here as far as The Stormy Daniels Hush Money Payoff For Farmers goes.

 

There are some independent producers out there but appears there's some resistance to extending the bailout to "not family farmers."

 

Seems to me the people doing contract finishing are like hostages here- even if you don't think the integrator deserves a bailout, the people on the other side of the contracts are bearing some risk.

 

Although I suppose they always should have been a ware that there's no such thing as a risk free deal.

 

Presumably their lenders hold other collateral for the most part.

 

For the majority of integrated systems I'd assume that the worst case scenario is that the sow unit gets sold (owners get wiped out, lenders do OK) and stays in production and the contract finisher is left with a less attractive new offer. Then the lenders on both parts come out OK for the most part.

 

That's similar to the chronic overcapacity in dairy- it doesn't conform to classic U of Chicago Schultz free market economics.

 

But like a lot of things in our economy we pretend they do.