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don't shoot me

I'm just the messenger. Shoot the USDA. Just kidding, don't do that either.


But the simplest explanation for the large corn stocks- historically small  Q3 FSR number, wold be a bigger 2015 crop than originally estimated.


Same for beans.


That's not something that people in the ECB who mostly had well below record yields can really fathom (same for 2014 but with WCB).


This crop could of course, go either way, but it does kinda suggest that with current conditions better than both those years and ever rising productivity, you can't rule out a huge crop either.


FWIW, one forecaster calls the midday runs "much drier." I wouldn't get too excited, or despondent over that but it is part of the backdrop.


PS. worth zilcho but for several years I've speculated that with a several billion bushel increase in on farm storage and farmers more likely to self finance carrying inventory and thus less use of the government loans, there may have been more grain out there than what is visible. But that in way explains if that is so, why find it now?

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Re: don't shoot me

6-10 8-14 don't change a little but don't really show a very much drier trend.


After a couple of hours to think about it I'm enterntaining the notion that the algo readers were just set to jump on any acreage number under a certain level and did so- in approxiately 10 seconds after release- running up a quick .30, then another bit of a surge later.


Yes, the world is just that silly.


Best interpretation remains a flat correction- a return to the highs and then back to the lows.

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