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Veteran Contributor

drought worse than expected

It was a heartbreaking year for a massive area this year which stretched from the Dakota's to most of the southern half of Western Canada. This was a story that painted a true reflection of what happened unlike what most of mainstream media and government agencies were reporting.

http://www.producer.com/2017/09/heartbreaking-harvest-for-young-farmer/

8 Replies
Honored Advisor

Re: drought worse than expected

Whitesand_Farms,  

There are not many posts I want to go back and read, but this one came to mind quickly when your post came up.

Usda ingored this drought just like they did the one in the southern plains in 2011...... The difference is that drought followed a bumper crop in 2010 with a bad crop in Russia.  Prices were pretty good if you raised anything.

This one comes with bad prices and ugly usda's predictions of world stocks at a great high.  Acres have been going down for several years and failure this year in the north and a poor crop in the south that includes a bad mosaic outbreak across the southern plains.  

Where can stocks in the US actually be.....

Top it off with crop insurance that is unusable because the yields have been hammered down for 4 years.... 

We saw a lot of wheat acres in the south this spring that were killed in favor of another crop with spring moisture..... the elevator prices had very negative basis wheat at $3 is a lot worse than corn at $3  but neither will sustain production without huge taxpayer dollars.

 

I just kicked this spring post in for interest and to brag about getting up early once this year.  Smiley Happy

 

 

05-17-2017 04:04 AM

 

 

Here is someone else making my point....  

It is an interesting graph ,,,, what do you think of it...??

 

image003.png

 

nearly 50% of the worlds ending stocks are located in China's inventory numbers

While the EU has 7% of the worlds population and 1.7% of the worlds supply of ending stocks.

What are the actual available stocks of wheat in the world?

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Veteran Contributor

Re: drought worse than expected

It's funny that Australia is having a poor year the US cut acres and had a dismal crop Canada cut acres and had a dismal crop Argentina acres are down but yet we are awash in grain. It's a matter of time before ***** hits the fan and the ending stocks that are empty finally show up. I still think wheat will be the big sleeper to really shoot up come spring or early next summer. watch the basis will tell the story how short they are the markets will follow after.

 

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Veteran Advisor

Re: drought worse than expected

Check the WASDE for the "fringe" areas......many would no longer be considered the fringe and have shown growth in wheat production the past five years......look beyond the traditional wheat growing regions

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Honored Advisor

Re: drought worse than expected

Corn acres going back to reality?
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Veteran Advisor

Re: drought worse than expected

white sands I hear you.  we had a few years down here were you couldn't buy a rain

yet, with a large production area, usda/Chicago/whoever, pays no attention......."oh there is always somewhere each

year that has bad weather"........but this sized area to this degree ??

 

I have to admit, I don't understand the trade anymore...........years back, I could, I could see their logic........today, it just goes

one way then another, no rhyme nor reason............its almost like the Russians are making fake news.....and Chicago believes

them, rather than us out here in the middle of it.

 

one has to wonder.......what is the trades goal ?  We see export numbers, that are good, wheat acres are down, and production was

down (we have seemed to forget that).....beans are on fire, but we drop 12 cents.....and corn, a lot of burned up corn in the high

plains, and to meet the projected 170 bu, a lot of the corn has to do dang good to average out.........if we do drop, and our demand

things might be interesting in the corn pit.

 

I was "told" it will take a while for all this stuff to "clear",  so maybe feb on.........

 

I'm toying with something i'll talk about later........but maybe if it looks good, i'll share, and maybe all of us might be able to smile a bit

more.

 

 

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Veteran Advisor

Re: drought worse than expected

Your last paragraph is a teaser.  Me thinks you're "toying" with us.  Don't keep us in suspense too long.

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Veteran Advisor

Re: drought worse than expected

Just so you can sleep at night, I'm going to look
At a program/service on commodity trading,
That is "as easy as green light and red light"
((Don't know what if yellow light !!))
Will see if it can be combined with establish positions.
Also want to try to figure out what they are looking
At. It is "supposed" to have very good results.

I guess if we can't beat them, join them
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Honored Advisor

Re: drought worse than expected

Several years ago I went to a meeting put on by my bank.

 

Long story short they had a snake oil salesman . Promised the moon. And half a dozen stars of my choice at a later date.

 

Gave him $4000 , I made one little trade in the black, he made three and wiped out the $4,000 plus within $5 of my positive trades profits.

 

He called wanting more....

 

He is still waiting.

 

Hope your red and green lights are not out of AUBURN Nebraska.

 

They are not called "brokers"  with out good reason.

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