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Senior Contributor

drukkenmiller -- hardknox ..

Continued from hardknox’s thread below. This is market related, a few HF people like Drukenmiller are major figures, you can learn a lot form them. The real ones don't hide, W Buffett, even Soros and a few others are frank tell you how they think.  Just near no one listens because it is bring vs.  harmonicased convergence & magic cycles.    Google -- Druckenmiller,, interview a mo or 2 back. RARE he shuns the spotlight.


NOW hardknox and other doom-gloomers,, he is as bearish on the big picture as   you     even me,  unsustainable,   SS, Medicare etc costs vs the economy even when it is growing.  We are a democracy,, isn't it expected ?   BUT  the POINT,, note,, just  because he is uber bearish the Big picture,  means zip to his positions.  If he or you or I get some bear wiff in our coffee for the 10000th time,   today the corp world is all over,   and saying so for 30 yrs, didn't quite get it ?  did   it ..  Maybe  tomorrow maybe in our lifetimes. Or  maybe it never crashes..


$$$ is still flowing the FED seeks to stimulate credit growth and output, B.Obama is harming it all BIGTIME with tax worries and WORSE regulations endless..  HE is killing economic opportunity..


Corporate earnings are very good, we produce more with less people.   I have been waiting for my doom gloom for 10+ yrs,, when tdo rates go above 0?


Please share what you all hear from neighbors. I am NE US some city life and some rural. What I have seen the last 3-4 yrsd is people whom never bought stks, couldn’t sit with low rates nd started doing stks in '06' 07,, etc. Felt good byt they never had any idea where there capital was going nor, the current returns on theta capital etc. It was seems like it goes up, everyone else must be making $$4 in stks so ABC slimy mutal fund salesman gets the order.


THEN of the 2nd order a confluence, the credit bubble burst, and ring and ring we topped March 2008 and   Liberals learned the term “bear mkt” and recalled from their college years  that capitalism is evil!!!, and conservatives saw BO coming and the world would end surely with that, he is a this and that and that.


Tke the three, HUGE credit cycles peaks plus TWO distinct human types and all anted out. And we had the best bear mkt since 1929.. NOW all these newbies, older folks not used to risks, capitalisyts that were not capitalists etc,  Still hate 0 rates, so they buy farmland (can’t go down!) and they buy bond funds,, and bonds.  Because bonds are  safe  not risky like stks.. ok.


There aee 1 million examples, ie junk rated NG producer, borrowing  at 4.3 % for 12 yr paper.  A joke vs the risk.


So what will ensue ?? There has never ever been anything this extreme, so ONE sided, it isn’t just keen interest in bonds of all kinds,, the capital mkts have created lots of EXTRA supply ,  credit huge issuance at very low rates  to  meet desires  ..


Trigger, or isn’t there one or it is next lifetime?  BUT since hardknox and like minded are bearish stks for 10 yrs+,, Artifice is just as anti trend and thinks   one day,, massacre   in credit awaits.  FED knows the risk,, only way out is eae in try and let it seep through vs  crash.. Lots of talk. It will be sell the big rallies in us-tbonds,, and.  Farmland can’t go down right and corn and beans wheat will sell way over the Cost of prod fir 2 decades hence.


newmeds here, doing well.


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