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junior359
Visitor

end of america .com??

listening to farm talk today on local station and had some advertisement on about this site said evryone should look at it so I just did , pretty scary read. was wondering what hardnox or palouser would think about this ? is it or could it be a concern? seems kinda farfetched to me but wondering what you guys thought. enjoy your post and value your opinion. could this be happening?

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7 Replies
Senior Contributor

Re: end of America .com??

We need to have thoughtful men and women in charge in America, we need to get rid of leaders, in both business and politics, that have "anti-American views". The future can still be bright in America, but we do need to change direction. I think November of 2010 shows that Americans still care about the future of our country. We need to build on that. 

 

America has had a wheel in the ditch before, and managed to veer out and back on to the main highway. I think our democracy is still vibrant and strong. For all the fear mongering and defeatist views you see posted, there is a very solid core of hard working Americans that do want a secure future. and are striving to attain it. I do not think you will see the rioting in the streets here like in Egypt , Tunisia, and other places in the middle east. Night and day differences....

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Veteran Advisor

Re: end of america .com??

Hi junior-

 

I'm a little bit slow- do you happen to have a link? TIA, h

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Veteran Advisor

Re: end of america .com??

Hi junior,

 

Found it.

 

First, I'd describe Porter Stansberry as a mostly legitimate source although you have to remember that he sells a newsletter so the a part of the game is self promotion.

 

I think there is certainly more, and probably greater, economic turmoil somewhere in our future, just not sure that it plays out in the way that he describes or necessarily on the same timeline.

 

First, I simply don't see an alternative to the dollar as reserve currency.

 

The euro may have some more legs here just because everyone is short and the Asians are backing the bailout bonds. But the poorer nations will remain permanently  in a depression that they can't do anything about as long as they're locked in an overvalued fixed currency regime- their people won't tolerate that forever. And further- the good economic performance of Germany and the other core countries is directly due to the recent devaluation of the euro- the euro goes up and they have no competitive export advantage and the demand base within the EU is too small and growing smaller as the periphery languishes.

 

The yen- fergeddaboudit- everything Stansberry says about the dollar is double true there- massive government debt that they can only get away with because it is funded by their huge domestic savings pool. Add 2% to the 0 interest rate and it takes up the whole budget. And, they're falling off a demographic cliff. And like the Euro- China has been buying yen to keep it high and keep their competitive advantage. A big, weird beggar thy neighbor game going on.

 

Pound- no - probably too small of an economy anyway but austerity is biting hard and if it does work it is going to be a long time in the future with much pain before. Cando, Aussie, Kiwi- better stories but just too small in float.

 

China's yuan- it is well nigh impossible to get a handle on their internal debt situation but I'm simply not a believer that the party runs things nearly as well as we might be led to believe. A lot of discussion on that here- I don't really have a timeline but am near certain that a hard landing is in their future.

 

OK. From there, let's talk about "printing" dollars. Actually the US is not at the moment- they are doing a slick little balance sheet game where they're taking assets off the Treasury sheet and putting them on the Fed's. If they rented every Kinko's in the country to manufacture $100 notes and dropped them from helicopters- that is printing money.

 

What the Fed can and is doing is pushing liquidity into the sytem and fostering speculation in risk assets. The benefit seems mixed as $3 gasoline and rising food prices probably about balance out against any improvement in sentiment that comes from a higher stock market. Pretty much a circle jerk, imho.

 

The Fed can make interest rates lower- and even sharply negative- but they can't make anyone borrow money. In the 30s this conundrum became known as "pushing on a string." 

 

OK, I don't think that the dollar loses its reserve currency status, at least not until AFTER a huge global crisis. And with the basic problem being debt- more private than public but the public portion is growing rapidly as government becomes the borrower of last resort- the greater risk seems to me to be contraction and default rather than hyperinflation.

 

When debt contractions have occurred throughout history it is the senior currency that rises- regardless of blemishes it might have. The reason is that the majority of debts are denominated in it (thus "short" the reserve currency) and there is a massive short squeeze. We saw this dynmanic in real time in the 2008 crisis even as the Fed pushed dollar swap lines to europe, etc.

 

Neither outcome is pleasant but I'm still betting deflation against inflation. The powers that be fear that more than anything and will fight it to the end but I don't think they ultimately get to make the call.

 

I think that Adam Smith guy probably was on to something about the nature of markets.

 

FWIW, h

 

 

 

 

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Senior Contributor

Re: end of america .com??

Respectfully disagree with you on printing money.  Where are they getting their 600B for qe2?  They are not getting it from the treasury thats for sure!  Good grief!!   The dollar is toast in the long run.  There is no other alternative that is palatable to them.  They can't stomach a deflationary depression that would dwarf the 30s.  They do have control of which way we go.  All they have to do is print faster than the credit contraction, and in my opinion they will.

 

Hardnox,  I still think you are a paid poster on here.  Can't remember the name or title they give them, but I know websites hire posters to keep the traffic going!

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Veteran Advisor

Re: end of america .com??

In a fractional reserve banking system, money is borrowed into existence.

 

If monetized 100% of the US government debt the total stock of money+ credit would be absolutely the same.

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Senior Contributor

Re: end of america .com??

"If monetized 100% of the US government debt the total stock of money+ credit would be absolutely the same."

Can you please explain.  Most on here inluding me have no clue what you just said.  You sound like Mish Shedlock who has been predicting hard deflation for years and keeps getting it wrong! 

 

Yes money is being borrowed into existance, that is what qe2 is all about.  The gment is the lender and debtor of last resort now.  Any credit contraction in the private sector is offset by gment.

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Advisor

Re: Beyond Agriculture- conference april 27-28, sponsored by Federal Reserve

http://www.competitivemarkets.com/images/stories/2011Stories/OCMJan2011.pdf

  This from the Jan. newletter from OCM, Fred Stokes column, I can't cut and paste it,but he speaks about the PTB's plans for a collective farm system.   I believe when the Federal Reserve speaks about their plans for agriculture we should all pay attention.

 

  From 9-13-99 article in Feedstuffs Magazine-- "American agriculture must now quickly consolidate all farmers and livestock producers into fifty production systems.  These corporte production systems will control the money and imputs costs while the Farmer will supply the land, labor,equipment, and infrastructure to produce grains, meat, and fiber."

 

  snip-- "BEYOND AGRICULTURE; New Policies for Rural Agriculture" is the title of a conference to be held in Kansas City, April 27-28.  The conference is being sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kanas Citu Center for the Study of Rural America.  The director of the Center is one Mark Drabenstott also Vice Prisendent of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kanas City.

  Mr. Drabenstott is perhaps the most biased and vocal proponent for the industrialization, concentration and vertical coordination of American Agriculture.---  


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