http://www.321energy.com/editorials/saxena/saxena071611.html
"If Saudi Arabia is indeed sitting on humungous oil reserves and it has the ability to raise output, why has production failed to climb above the level recorded seven years ago?
Now some may argue that the Saudis are deliberately keeping a lid on production, but we have a different view. Call us sceptics, but we believe that Saudi Arabia is already stretched to the limit and will find it hard to increase production."
Of course the late Matt Simmons had made a very strong technical case for the idea that Saudi capacity was far less than advertised. If that turns out to be the case then the #1 issue- energy and oil, will have become the only issue.
I've posted the Hirsch report several times before. Note the estimation of required lead time for mitigation without severe economic disruption at 20 years ahead of peak oil. Which would put us around -3 from peak so make that 23.
http://www.netl.doe.gov/publications/others/pdf/Oil_Peaking_NETL.pdf
In my never ending file away section of things that didn't make sense, Iraq makes some sense in an ominous way. Simmons was one of the few people who would talk about being part of the Cheney energy task force and said that he found the Pres and VP very interested in his premise. There is no doubt at all that in 2001 there was only one place on earth that had large known conventional oil reserve capacity and that was Iraq.
