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expect craziness

Or almost anything. Maybe just crazy chopping and going nowhere. I can't begin to guess.

 

We've got a lot of the corn crop entering a critical growth phase with less than perfect weather and as you know, forecasts will matter more than actual weather.

 

In the everything market you got the euro and the US debt celing soap operas, plus we're reentering the reporting season where you can be assured that 70% of reporting companies will have earnings that are "better than expected."

 

If there was ever a time for "strategy trumps opinion" this seems to be it given that every single person's opinion as to direction is utterly worthless.

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5 Replies
dafeeder
Veteran Contributor

Re: expect craziness

Doesn't the #4 corn producer(Minnesota) need Heat Units?

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Crop growing conditions good

I kinow it is too hot, but here the corn looks quite healthy.  Very litte evidence of leaf disease (wont' stop the fungicide applicators, I suppose).  Beans are getting eaten a little by Japanes beetles, but mostly around the field borders.  No aphids. So far, so good. We need some cooler weather, though.l

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67guy
Veteran Contributor

Re: Crop growing conditions good

Fungicide is an excellent hedge against some of the effects of hot and dry weather.  Don't knock it.

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Re: Crop growing conditions good

From what I've heard, about 2/3 of people who put on fungicide get some yield benefit from it, but only 1/3 of the people get a financial return.  that means that 1/3 say less or equal yeild, 1/3 say a better yield but it diidn't pay the cost of application, and 1/3 say a financial return.  2/3 of the people would have been financially better off to not use it.

 

Fungicide is getting popular around here and the pressure is on early in the season to plan to put some on prophylictically, that is, as a preventive, whether you need it or not.   Those people are likely to be in the 2/3 that don't pay category.

 

Fungicide applications make money for the chemical companies and the applicators.  That is fine.  They don't usually make money for corn farmers.  

 

I have a feeling that big farmers put this stuff on to better plan or predict their yields and they are changing from applying it to address diseases to applying it so they can count on a certain yield.  Quite a different management approach.  I'm not saying it's bad, I'm just saying it doesn't pay off on the bottom line the same way. 

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Re: Crop growing conditions good

I'm an old fashioned IPMer.

 

If there is a field that a) scouts with some pressure 2) has a sucsptible variety/hybrid and 3) if I look at the potential economic threshold then no questions asked, let 'er rip.

 

But not as a shotgun approach.

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