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Veteran Advisor

explain it to me

From all the reports I am getting from
Many information sources, there was
significant damage to the bean crop
Due to frost/freeze. There may also be
Quality problems.

Some of the corn also, but not nearly as
Bad, more of a quality/test weight issue.

Yet none of this is reflected in the market.
Our system is so advanced that if something
Happens world wide, within a matter of
seconds the market is impacted.

But this is considered a nonevent

Some needs to ask and someone needs
To answer some questions.

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14 Replies
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Honored Advisor

Re: explain it to me

The answer...

 

It didn't frost in Maryland.

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Senior Contributor

Re: explain it to me

It must be because the buyers want organic beans and corn. Heh, heh...
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Veteran Advisor

Re: explain it to me

Oh I forgot, the R.I is going to be huge.
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Senior Advisor

Re: explain it to me

For things that could make the grain price decline, no proof necessary, immediate impact.

 

For things that could make the grain price increase, sorry, you have to prove it first.

 

Just remember, it's the opposite of how gas prices work at the pump.

 

 

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Veteran Advisor

Re: explain it to me

i think the bean market is seeing the frost damage as a significant EVENT. significant lows were made on report day last week and we have strong buying coming in the trade today and last night.

 

think about it from this perspective: the trade did "try" to discount this event on the open last night - SX was down 10 cents for a while but could sell no more. WHY? - the truth via the strong hands buying.

 

the strong handed tide is shifting before our very eyes from selling to buying.

 

think about 2012 drought - a gradual onset that picks up steam damage-wise, with time. This frost did the damage in 2 nights - but the quantity and extent of this damage is mostly unknowable at this point, so it will take time (weeks/months) for market to KNOW how much production is affected. Simply put, a fire's damage is seen on the spot b/c structures (# of pods, flowers) reduced visibly.

   Frost/freeze at this stage is not so much affecting pod #, but will reduce fill (seed size) - which is yet to be determined.

 

hope my jibberish makes some sense. 

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Honored Advisor

Re: explain it to me

The market is all about the fund train......and the funds are all about the momentum train.   Farmers need to have something happen that changes the momentum train.   Either way, it seems best not to stand on the tracks.

Senior Advisor

Re: explain it to me

This whole thing has turned into a crazy train.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FVovq9TGBw0

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Advisor

Re: explain it to me

Well said tiger,  put those words on a plaque and everyone should hang it in their office.  I think a real momentum change would be if China would sneak in and buy a billion bu. of new corn.  Didn't Russia do that with wheat years ago?

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Senior Contributor

Re: explain it to me

Didn't I just see a rumor that Chinese crushers were negotiating a big bean contract as we type this??

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