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factors.........
QE3 is coming................there are signs in the equities market that it is..........both broad and sector based indicators.........also, a bearish report (well supposedly, when you get past the emotion its still bullish) to push things down before a QE event would be pure coinicidence, right.......
SA weather is variable with ARG and SBR looking dry for 10 days.......temps likely building back too.........isolated areas of more than 1 inch rain last week.......but overall it was one of those, slow the bleeding on areas still alive, did nothing for those areas almost dead.........one thing not really factored in here is acres.......there are a lot of unplanted acres in ARG due to drought that are pushing the planting window, this weekend is a factor for some already.........BR has there second corn crop that goes into areas that is actually too wet and harvest is basically 1% done.......
US production.......lot of talk on acres and yields the last few days........I will try and get the acres chart updated and will add some stuff to it, see what the COC trend looks like..........if you believe Dr. Fred Below........and his thoughts that the yield hit with COC only gets worse instead of better over continous years of COC.........this will effect national average and trendline.........thus we need to think about corn production as a total capacity........also you can bet cotton acres will remain close to 2011 acres due to healthy prices.........peanuts will compete this year.........wheat acres are up.........and due to hay shortages in areas, we have probably slowed the plow down some.........
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Re: factors.........
MT-
Most reports I've read have COC acres taking a 20bu/ac yield hit (or more). Factor that in with higher fertilizer costs and it will be difficult to steal acres from other alternatives. I believe we would need $6.00 CZ'12 before spring to buy new acres.
This is our personal crop budget. Our expected COC yield is 157 (based on 175 average -10% yield hit).
Corn Soybeans
Variable costs:
Fertilizer $260 $85
Seed/Chemicals $125 $95
Machine+ Repairs $125 $93
Insurance, Interest, Misc. $105 $80
Fixed costs: Rent/ Living Exp. $290 $290
Total: $905 $643
Expected Revenue: 157* $5.50= $863 55* $11.50= $632
Net: -$42 -$11
For 2012 we have lost the advantage to planting corn due to higher fertilizer prices. In 2011 it made sense because we could lock in a $6.00 insurance guarantee and our 28% Nitrogen was only $211/ton. Right now 2012 just does not offer the same incentive.
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Re: factors.........
Justin thanks for the in depth review of COC acres for 2012. I have been saying this same thing for a couple weeks now. A $5 new crop and insurance price doesn't buy much more than about 92 million acres of corn given the input prices. Sure the guys in the heart of the cornbelt will plant a good deal of corn this year, but it wont be enough to make 94 million acres. IMO the real battle for acres will be in Ohio and southern Michigan. Michigan acres can go to a variety of crops and Ohio growers will have to figure out what to do with the unplanted acres that would have went to wheat..... My guess the Ohio acres will go largely to corn since they were previously soybeans. Kansas and North Dakota growers could also plant a variety of crops, but that can be a crap shoot with more weather extremes. If this market wants more than 92 million acres of corn it had better realize the acres they are really needing will be outside the "I" states and planting more corn for these producers comes at a higher risk..... A risk $5 wont buy.