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sw363535
Honored Advisor

feedyard Talk. 2/25. 1:00 am

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Weather ---- Another nice day of more rain Wednesday ----- producers are anxious to be in the field and in a sprayer..... but this is heavenly moisture........ How great to het that amount of snow in the mountains and enough spring moisture to not have to pre water.   We are close.

 

futures

Cattle plump shopper pens.     120.3    Up.  0.125.      

shapely young spring break cattle headed to full feed.     147.325    Up 1.85

Good. days ahead...

 

Grains

Corn  @    5.504    down 03

Wheat @  5.762   up.  0.2

Beans @  14.292.       down 3.4

Cotton @  82.35      Down 0.09

 

Natural gas is a low  $2.552 per McF.         down  0.016

Crude oil     59.91 .    down 1.28.  after a good daylight session

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Grains have yet to break trend upward.   Corn at worst is getting comfortable at this level..... which signals the absence of negative news.  The weather is still in charge.

Cotton has lost momentum and lost several cents from former highs.  Possibly a direct result of China's concentration on US Corn this last week. (which continued this week)

Cattle........ where the action is as China takes the carry.   

feeders and hogs ........All the meats are maintaining an upward trend line long term even as feed costs increase for 7 months now.

 

 

 

 

SW  

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clayton58
Veteran Advisor

Re: feedyard Talk. 2/25. 1:00 am

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I guess I don’t see wheat still in an uptrend. Looks like it’s turned down. I sold some at different times on the way up. Renowned some on the board. Got out of part of it and thinking I should sell the rest. I’m also pricing some 22 wheat.   Seems to me that wheat will continue to have a place in our rotation. Dryland corn and milo both yield better in wheat stubble versus following a fall crop. That really showed up last year. The money is made growing corn or milo but the wheat in rotation is what makes it work. That’s the thought from here. Your results may vary and every year plays out differently 

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lsc76cat
Veteran Advisor

Re: feedyard Talk. 2/25. 1:00 am

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Thx sw, great info as always.

Great to see you folks are getting some moisture.  Last couple days of rain here has done alot of damage to the lake ice.

Trying to figure out if that brown thing on top of your TV is an African brown bat you had mounted or a statue of Bullwinkle??🧐🧐

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k-289
Senior Advisor

Re: feedyard Talk. 2/25. 1:00 am

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Arkansas &  Canadian  River  will  have  some  stream  flow,  recharge  volume  out  of  the  Rocky  Mountain  State  - a  positive  adjustment  -  -  -

   

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sw363535
Honored Advisor

Re: feedyard Talk. 2/25. 1:00 am

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There has been a little water in the Beaver river near Guymon this last month also   but the southern rockies carried the low pressure winds and left the heavy snow north the last two systems.

The platte is where the bulk of the latest snow is headed...... so if we warm up quickly and see mountain rains ....... watch out missoooouriiii.... this spring.  Unless lake Meade can hold the warm air on the western slope and melt it to the west.... just desserts for Colorado, a state that pumps western slope water over the continental divide to feed their insane urban sprawl (stealing water from the promised Hoover Dam reserves.  (that is the first answer in the ever expanding reasons why Lake Meade and Lake Powell are out of water---- bureaucratic theft). There should be a law against living in Colorado or taking good fishing water out of service.  

The Canadian is an ancient river through what must have been an impressive flow at one time out of New Mexico (when it was old Mexico).  Back when the Indians controlled the legislature and large snow packs ranged farther south--- when Iowa was the end of the glacier tea party. ............ well before they closed the state to get DNC dollars.

 

Thanks Isc76cat,  That picture really grows on us doesn't it?

If it's me.... and it could be ......bullwinkle would hold a more prominent place in the room..... like sleeping on the couch or setting on the front edge of the desk and slowly moving his antlers back and forth while answering spelling questions.

One of the remaining statues of moose supremacist Bullwinkle.  Protected by young California voters who remember him as a floundering father figure............. go figure.

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This stuff keeps me up at night and well tuned to the galaxy.                Howdy partnerHowdy partner

 

 

sw363535
Honored Advisor

Re: feedyard Talk. 2/25. 1:00 am

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In beans and corn the chart has a very defined lower side of the upward trend.... I wouldn't bet on it going down for another few weeks.... but I would be watching for it.   I really think there may be another run up in both.... Brazil/Harvard is not a reliable place to feed the world from..... a certain dishonest undertone to the location.

Wheat is another character and is closer to some new supply in June/July.  Wheat is testing its lower limits of trend line now and will be forced to commit to a change in the next few days.....   Fundamentally wheat faces economic issues that will keep the acres down for the foreseeable future.  It has not benefited from the technology in yield or consistency.  And competition for calorie grabbers continues to grow as rumor of a new trend in popular "paste board" waffles and their lower gluten status continue to circulate.  

Questions for wheat............ does flooding in eastern Australia hurt their wheat production or are they like Kansas where floods in the elementary east bring smiles to western wheat growers (where they finally got a shower.).  Will the corn worshiping world turn to wheat production as drought/flood cycles stress their profit margins?  (planted acres here in Ks do not show signs of being higher for wheat--- its a cursed step child relationship that brings on cattle and not combines). Will round balers outsell combines this spring as we see the extent of the freeze damage?

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sw363535
Honored Advisor

Re: feedyard Talk. 2/25. 1:00 am

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On the "Did you know" format...... Did you know there are no pictures of Bullwinkle and George Strait together at a social function or in a searchable format.  

 

They were pretty careful, that crafty duo.

 

Dudley and Bullwinkle --- another story!!       easily found on a search for an image of a Dudley do right merit badge....

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k-289
Senior Advisor

Re: feedyard Talk. 2/25. 1:00 am

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Would  those  2 ,   fit  into  the  Oklahoma Land Grab Race ,   excuse me,  Run  - 4 -22 -89  -  ? 

 

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clayton58
Veteran Advisor

Re: feedyard Talk. 2/25. 1:00 am

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I guess I don’t see wheat still in an uptrend. Looks like it’s turned down. I sold some at different times on the way up. Renowned some on the board. Got out of part of it and thinking I should sell the rest. I’m also pricing some 22 wheat.   Seems to me that wheat will continue to have a place in our rotation. Dryland corn and milo both yield better in wheat stubble versus following a fall crop. That really showed up last year. The money is made growing corn or milo but the wheat in rotation is what makes it work. That’s the thought from here. Your results may vary and every year plays out differently 

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sw363535
Honored Advisor

Re: feedyard Talk. 2/25. 1:00 am

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Yes I think that will probably be fully clear by the first of the week.... but at this point it still has a chance of maintaining some upward trend at a lesser scale.  

Do we have any chance as seeing a near wipe out of freeze damage?

Or a Southern Hemisphere wreck like Western Australia and Argentina?

The general attitude toward wheat is sad.  It really is just a cover crop like barley or Rye , or tritakale.  The antlers is asleep so hard to tell how that is spelled.

Speaking of rye ..... I see some planted these days and my father said "You never plant rye until you have fully given up on wheat."

Wheat has that underlying factor that is critical......... there is nothing you can do too make it yield...... especially if in takes money to get there.    Right now I drive by obvious freeze damage in good irrigated wheat.  The best irrigated irrigated right now might make 90 b/a and could just as likely yield 30 b/a,,,,,   That is just reality especially out here on the west end of the ramp that is ks.

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