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Honored Advisor

feedyard Talk. 2/30. 3:33 am



Weather ---- March is about over and blowing itself off to the northeast where March will self destruct somewhere in New England.  April usual will mean rain or a late wet snow somewhere along the month so pre water may be avoided which is always the start of a better year.   

Isn't it always interesting how last weeks rain and snow turns into next weeks red flag warnings for fire in late march.  The baseball boys are moving north so it is time to hammer the strip tilling and tune up planters.



Cattle plump shopper pens.     122.65    Up.  0.87     

 spring break cattle headed to full feed.     152.2    Up 2.325

Good. days are here.  Feeders are on the high side of trend trade range.



Corn  @    5.462    down 0.2

Wheat @  5.65   down 4.4

Beans @  13.89.       down 4

Cotton @  81.03     Up.  0.56.    After nearly a ten cent slide from the +90 level.......

Corn is still in trend mid to lower side but not trend changing movement.  Personally we have shipped our last load of 2020 corn..... we rushed to get her done and got slowed by the arctic and the encroaching glacier that had to get pretty close.

Beans finally lost their grip on $14, but slightly and looking for resistance. Nothing in the news says there is a big crop on the horizon.

Wheat is hard to find but harvest is not that far away and I have visited with one of those good crop problemizers for the panhandle region of OK who tells me freeze damage in wheat is not bad in his area..... The early harvest in Texas and southern okla will be more likely.

Cotton,   just had a bad spring last year in this area and will loose acres to Grain Sorghum which has the best price improvement of any commodity in a one year time frame.... Cotton is falling back in price after not being able to keep up.

Wheat,  as discussed has lost uptrend.  Unless freeze damage is into southern Oklahoma and soon makes the media, It isn't going to in Kansas.  If you haven't foolishly priced some new crop.  Might be time to consider it in a 20 to 30 percent range.  ........... I know that sounds silly but it's wheat, we could loose it twice before June.  The most resilient risky crop ever dreamed up.   If your within 70 miles of Adams Oklahoma, top dress it and hit it with some herbicide.  Do not sell any.  Bin it for an august/sept. sale.  The protein bonus in that area is the most stable characteristic wheat possesses.  The rest of you consider killing it and planting milo or corn.  Glyphosate still works great on it..  (Put up a sign "saving the world from Gluten") and collect a Nobel prize.  Keep one field back for biscuit and cinnamon role personal use.  Just keep it quiet, don't want to woke the fools.



Natural gas is a low  $2.683 per McF.         up. 0.03

Crude oil     60.15 .    down 0.42. -------------------------------------




corn and beans  have yet to break trend upward.   Corn at worst is getting comfortable at this level..... which signals the absence of negative news.  The weather is still in charge.


Cattle........ as the world demands more beef we will do our best to supply.   I'd say feeders are a near sell position for a range trade.  But cattle are poised to have a very good year.  Demand is strong  Grilling is better than a trip to the city or a night at the theatre.... healthier all around.  let the woke cry for better fake things while they feed each other their fresh salmonella.  I am so sick of raw vegetables served with such hype.

feeders and hogs ........All the meats are maintaining an upward trend line long term even as feed costs increase for 7 months now.  Hogs finally caught up.


Had our first day of pre school yesterday after "spring break"....... travel snacks was salted peanuts. Hoss and I had no supervision so he rode shotgun w boots and backpack.  He keeps it neater then Gma.  "Lets open some peanuts, those sunflowers have too much cinnamon on them". -------------- its cracked pepper but the best part of grand parenting is just a straight face and listening.  He has learned a lot more words than definitions so far.  IT is an adult talk lingo at his house.  So he pronounciates  exactly but the usage needs schooling.   Very entertaining.

4 Replies
BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Re: feedyard Talk. 2/30. 3:33 am

My guess is the March quarterly report tomorrow will be friendly, the market is  demand as well as supply driven.  Thus far prices haven`t scared away buyers, at some point rationing will have to occur if they don`t start soon they`ll have to scramble this summer.   Which won`t be a surprise either  🙂

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Senior Advisor

Re: feedyard Talk. 2/30. 3:33 am

Sw, I enjoy reading of your grandparenting adventures.  Our closest grandkids are in the OKC area.  Makes for some travelinf SE to the "City".  4 hours down and 4 back for a 45 minute soccer game.  Oh well, one does what it takes to be/stay involved.  Wife and I tell ourselves its easier for us to make the trip than for them.  On a different note, and to draw in marketing,  I was surprised the last couple times down there (twice in March) to see as many wheat fields still being grazed.  I know for much of that stretch, wheat is a pasture crop to be turned into beef.  But I thought $6.00 wheat prospects would have chased cattle off a bit earlier.   So what price will be needed to keep or add wheat grain acres?  

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Honored Advisor

Re: feedyard Talk. 2/30. 3:33 am

There are some huge blocks of stocks being liquidated in the stock market.

May have some liquidity spill over in the commodity side of things.

I still think it will be a basis thing later this spring and summer on at least the grain  side.

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Honored Advisor

Re: feedyard Talk. 2/30. 3:33 am

Clayton === The way I size up wheat is somewhere over $8 to $10 would bring it closer to even with the other grains.  This cover crop nonsense using noxious weeds like rye is flat goofy.  

Food value, protein, grazing, yield, costs all included...... at $5.50 it is just a feed grain. The market doesn't deserve it.  

The gluten deficiency should kick in eventually when the ball park hot dog demand starts next week.  Kids gotta have it in the diet.  Cinnamon rolls have a covid taste but that should come back too.   

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