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sw363535
Honored Advisor

feedyard Talk. 4/22. 11:3o pm

Well the week is marching on....... and our gradual improvement in grain prices is looking less like a "long haul" experience and more like a monster "speed bump" after days like today.  But lets all remember what the markets telling us today.  "The fears that drive rapid changes in trends stop being gradual and turn into big moves as the fears become more real".  

At least 18-20 days before that cold slap in the face from usda, so lets settle down in the lazy boy and see if we can keep this dream rolling.

 

I'm checking out the water level in a couple of kansas reservoirs and making sure the camp sites are up to snuff before the season goes full swing.   6 inches of snow a couple days ago kept the water ski's in the garage fish off the hook.

One note I got in text today from a grain buyer in the Texas panhandle said that his company says that half the feedlots in the Texas panhandle are about to change to a wheat ration.  Not sure when..... but Texas wheat harvest will start in mid may and we may see the wheat move north faster than the combines do.

So what does that tell us?    Corn supply is short..... well basis has been telling us that for nearly 7 months.

Wheat is cheaper than corn........ That has turned into a race up hill.  (thank you corn .... for dragging wheat along with you.

Something I watch to judge whether this popular fad has legs or not is the old crop corn vs new crop corn spread.  So far old crop corn seems to be consuming some amphetamines while new crop is smoking weed.  

When the feedlots go to wheat I have seen the drug scenario change regionally before.  Suddenly we got enough corn to get by till harvest but we need to get our fall needs covered (cause there is never enough wheat to go very far)

If you live with a good banker, time to keep her happy with a sale or two.  New crop milo ....price a little of that basis you got locked in... China being the only buyer so far, don't let that one go too far.   If you price some nc corn or beans (a small little) she will smile at ya knowing she can scold ya for being wrong later.  But sell some old crop and she might give ya a little kiss. (then call you a damn fool for waiting so long.)

Nothing turns an excited market into long term fun like small incremental sales.  And nothing kills a good thing like selling two years out something you may never get planted.

tomorrow is most likely "profit taking" Friday...  so the banker can get a steak or new shoes over the weekend.... Hope ya find a table and a chef, because there aint a chance of finding a shoe store left open.

Funny scene this week --- watched a gal trying to buy a blouse and pants in one of the few department stores still trying.  Clothes got checked by two different buyers while she watched.  Then she snuck in and nabbed them before minds changed.  Three different clerks handled them and offered to ring em up.  Gal says can I try them on, we are a long way from home?  Clerk announces that the dressing rooms are locked and closed.   Orders from headquarters(Covid issue)!  Gal says "I'll take the smallest pair, then you can refund me while I'm still here."  --  Store clerk says since you can't try them on in the private rooms the company gives you 6 months to return them.

Another customer says she tried hers on in the public restroom.    ------ sometimes you know when it is time to wait in the parking lot.

 

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5 Replies
k-289
Senior Advisor

Re: feedyard Talk. 4/22. 11:3o pm

I'm  guessing  here ,  with  those  $400.oo/head  '' harvest  floor "  margins , being  the  hedge  for  those  " virtual corn piles "  being  consumed  by  those  formulated  pens - maybe - ? 

 a  Go  Fund  Me  Page  would  be  in  order  if  those  slip to  $350.oo / head  - maybe ? 

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sw363535
Honored Advisor

Re: feedyard Talk. 4/22. 11:3o pm

I think this weeks grain markets facilitated that slip.  Or at least some of it.  Ours went late this week so I am sure we will feel it.

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roarintiger1
Honored Advisor

Re: feedyard Talk. 4/22. 11:3o pm

I stored some dry corn on a couple of wagons and backed them in the barn last fall. 
Well, I just unloaded them and the value of the corn was over $1000 more than it would’ve been last fall. 
I guess that I need more wagons. 

sw363535
Honored Advisor

Re: feedyard Talk. 4/22. 11:3o pm

I got some new crop milo sold this morning for $6.72 per bushel..... (we had a good basis contract established so we sold some of it)

We looked back to the local elevator price April 28 of last year it was $3.22.  

That is not the sign of a healthy market.

 

k-289
Senior Advisor

Re: feedyard Talk. 4/22. 11:3o pm

Be  intere-$ting   what  the  crop  insurance  price  formula  for  variant  will  BE  - ? 

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