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sw363535
Honored Advisor

feedyard Talk. 4/6. 11:3o am

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Weather ---- Well its April but the wind says it is still march.... Herbicide applications are slow, but planting is near ready.   

 

 

futures

Cattle plump jogger pens.     124.425    Up.  1.875 

 spring break cattle headed to full feed.     151.175    Up 2.55

Still a rising tide in meats with hogs still in that elite air of   $105.60.   

Demand remains good even though feed prices look higher

 

Grains

Corn  @    5.534.    +0.2.  

Wheat @  5.652   +2.2.  Higher than ten days back

Beans @  14.21     +8.2

Cotton @  79.67     Up.  1.79    After over a ten cent slide from the +90 level....... Cotton looks up

  

Corn is still in an upward trend trading range.  It has been sideways with an upward tendency for three months now trying to break below this 5.30 to 6.56 range 4 times with no success and set new highs twice with nothing more than a projection number based on probability.  That looks like we are finding comfort at this level and building a base that will constituted good resistance from a charting perspective.... It looks like a good time for the corn market.... the big ups and downs rapidly..... IMO do us damage. Everyones suppliers are ramping up our production costs already... Lets take a slower rate up and hold on to it as the Harvard Brazil farmers struggle ......

Beans are back over $14.18, and it is interesting how similar the chart for corn and beans run. I'd call them the same way..... I just don't see anything yet that looks to drag them back down before July August harvest viewing.  Chart wise I think mid may to June 1 time frame has some pressure to go up or sideways lower trend based on the planting progress and difficulties.  Old crop marketing needs to consider finishing up marketing for both.... But if you got er in the bin and want to hold her for the long shot bragging rights ....... go for it.  If weather is on our side as we go reconsider getting her out of the way.

Wheat futures have been sliding on a downward trend since Mar 1.  Winter kill and frost damage in Ks has not become obvious.  It appears the grain side of winter wheat may have dodged that bullet.  Okla and Texas may be different but half those acres will be pastured out in an average year.  There are two factors that will support wheat from falling too far below corn....1. right now it is already 60 cents a bushel cheaper to the feedlots than corn and corn is in short supply going into June.  2. planted acres are lower again this year and in the bread basket of central Ks cotton and bean acres are well established.  No outcome for this wheat harvest is going to build any growth in supply. (not at these prices).  It is just a feed grain. It will take a nice protein bonus to keep it out of the feed bunk....   (A backhanded way of looking at this is cheap wheat will keep corn from getting too high........ we don't plant enough acres to make this statement true like it was in the 1960's)

Cotton,  the sudo "market" for cotton just won't compete for acres --- there is no competition on the buying end.  

 

 

Natural gas is a low  $2.524 per McF.         up. 0.02.  That is a slide down of 10 cents and should be.  The usual lower trend of spring 

Crude oil     59.41 .    +0.78-------------------------------------   Still cheaper than any form of electricity  and it still takes oil to build batteries and tires and the plastics that make up most of the electric cars structure.

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Marketing new crop.

We are delaying the process a little farther.  The usda's gift of lower acres,,,,, nothing inventory building happening so far in the Southern Hemisphere,,,,,,,,, and basis for new crop is taking some protection.   Milo will still be our first price floor to build.

New crop Basis local elevator is  HRW wheat--- +0.30,  corn +0.29,  milo +0.65,  soybeans -1.01.......... wheat corn and milo are in slightly higher than normal positions and beans are always ugly........ 

For all the feeding we have beef, pork, dairy........ all beans have to be shipped 250+miles out of the area to be processed and shipped back as meal.......    The result of driving small business out and depending on monopoly giants for an economy.  No one has ever invested in processing facilities west of Wichita ks.  Not is needed volumes anyway.

 

Cattle........ Up Up UP.     The first thing I will do this spring is build a fire to burn the mask and grill beef.  Lets bet most of the world does the same.

Go hogs.

====================

School is back after it......... seeds are stocked up after a trip to Texas to check on the favorite sister in law.  Only SIL.

A Local Friend(retired home builder) lost his life to a long bought with cancer earlier this year and his wife is at 90, She's been sad and has been searching for purpose.  She got a call from her oldest son, also in that area of Texas, needing her help as his wife was coming home to a hospice bed............   She said "I can't be much help".  and then I heard a profound statement made quietly to her-- "Sometimes all a boy needs is his mom's hand to get him across the street!"  She flew down the next morning.  Checked on her before we came home.

Hope your weekend was good one, too. (Just one of those comments that I couldn't seem to forget.)

 

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4 Replies
k-289
Senior Advisor

Re: feedyard Talk. 4/6. 11:3o am

Maybe   S O T G  would  set  up  a  bean  processing  plant  close  to  Guyman ,  although  a  hopper  car  of  meal  from  Wichita  has  a  smaller  monetary  footprint of  investment -  -  -

Consolidation &  driving  out, seem  to  work  in  tandem , with  best  regards  &  focus  on  absentee  shareholders - - -

Humidity's  in the  teens , has  stirred  lots  of  attention,  east  &  north of  US  83  as  of  late  - - -    

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BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Re: feedyard Talk. 4/6. 11:3o am

We have not yet begun to ration, number crunchers promise we WILL run out of old crop of corn & beans at this rate.  The biggest favor China can do us is to actually CANCEL one of their orders.  ADM fires up 2 E-plants in derecho area, experts wonder "where they gonna git the corn?"

Kind of a bad deal if traders/endusers  are keeping an artificial lid on the market pretending no need to curtail demand and "things`ll just work out" and prices have to go into a rationing mode with this starting base of $5.50 corn and $14 beans.  No, now is the time to take prices to a level that`ll get oldman Ostrander to tap into his government bins. 

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k-289
Senior Advisor

Re: feedyard Talk. 4/6. 11:3o am

Demand  for  fertilizer ,  tells  one  story , with  mother  nature  being  the '' hole  card '' on  this  fall  harvest monitor  displays  - - -    

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sw363535
Honored Advisor

Re: feedyard Talk. 4/6. 11:3o am

BA,     IMO.  there is no way to know or predict (even at usda) where we go.  The US is still a primary contributor to supply and demand.  Yet we have never lived through this amount of federal intervention in every segment of economic activity.  The federal "footprint" will have unpredictable effect on markets as well as everything else..... This comes to mind every time I read someone referring to waves, or theories on the charting of commodity prices from a history that was built on far more open markets.  I would not be surprised if usda suddenly announced a commodity buying program to store grain, a new age, china style government reserve without any notice in legislation.  (real or perceived on paper). Or usda announcing purchases from the Chinese reserves.

Point is we have stepped into a new world where segments(or all) of an economy can be shut down by the declaration of a public threat.  Is Federalizing production into the USDA control all that impossible to imagine?

Maybe that's too spacccey for marketing but we haven't really had an open marketing system where buying or selling of contracts set the price, unfettered, for decades........ It is constant federal manipulation and usually intended to our benefit.

A sudo monopoly exists in nearly every aspect of the economy, making it possible for the big dogs to bark on command when we need a vaccine, but who knows what the price is or was (or forever will be).

Rationing is not what these elected and appointed federal bosses intend to do.  I remind you they are in control until pushed back into a nonemergency mindset......... I do not expect that any time soon.  The mob mlb all star game decision is a fair example of where we are in applying pressure under the table.

We need these markets to establish a demand controlled steady direction that looks less like a knee jerk on the long term chart.... and we are at a good point to see that for a while, as long as the "party" allows.

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