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Honored Advisor

feedyard Talk. 4/8. 11:3o pm



Weather ---- As someone else pointed out ......... our first weather scare is in the southern hemisphere.  



Cattle plump jogger pens.     125.025    - 0.25

 spring break cattle headed to full feed.     151.60    -01.075

Still a rising tide in meats with hogs still in that elite air of   $108.70.   +0.8

Meats took today with patience.  But in these price ranges they can afford to pay more for dinner.



Corn  @    5.78.    +1.6

Wheat @  5.776  +1.2.  

Beans @  14.116     -3.4

Cotton @  81.5     Up.  0.09     

Kind of shocking that corn is leading the speculation day chorus.

Beans are still holden their over 14 status-- when they should be the one with nothing left in the tank.

Wheat found a pulse today

But today lets take a look at someone else view...... 


  •   Futures bounced around this week, pulling back from the rally through Tuesday, but recovered on drier conditions ahead. Cash markets are firm in the interior, while the export market remains mostly quiet. Weather trade may allow wheat to trade its own story, but otherwise will continue to be a follower.

  •   Domestic: The milling market is steady to firmer in the rail market, with mills showing a little life in order to keep wheat in the pipeline. The feed market has pulled wheat out of the country at good values, so mills will have to step back in to keep some flowing their way.

  •   Exports: The export market has been quiet, with little demand for old crop wheat with U.S. offers above global market values. China purchased 65k MT of HRW and 195k MT of WW for new crop shipment, which is positive.

  •   Spreads: The K/N weakened over the last few sessions, pushing through -7, but has not broken through -7 1⁄2 yet. We should see further weakness on the spread, but upside feels light.


  •   We are now in a split directional market, with old crop balancing stocks and demand, while new crop contracts try to buy acres and digest the current plantings estimate. Most of the market remains skeptical about the acreage estimate, but we are now seeing support from declining Brazil conditions and potentially smaller safrinha crop.

  •   Domestic: Old crop basis remains steady, with old crop focus on J/J/A/S needs. New crop values are firm, but not seeing much movement to go with the strength on the board.

  •   Exports: CIF NOLA bids are steady, but we are hearing that deferred bids are firmer. Export sales were light last week, with Unknown cancelling 165k MT, and China only buying 99k MT.

  •   Spreads: The K/N spread weakened to +12 1⁄2 this week, but renewed support from S. American crop size and new Chinese interest has turned the ship stronger again. The recent volatility leaves room for another weaker move, but we need to see the race to buy global bushels slow.


  •   Domestic: Interior bids fell another 15-20 cents this week, as the export market remains quiet and buyers are

    cautious to build any positions. New crop bids fell 20 cents also, with buyers taking some protection until we get

    better new crop demand definition.

  •   Exports: Exporter bids at the Gulf have steadied, with new crop bids into Houston rising 5 cents over the last couple

    days. Export sales were quiet last week, with Unknown cancelling 55k MT and China adding that amount to their program.


  •   The board leveled out this week, which meant that old crop turned sideways after the post-report pullback, while the November contract has stayed near the highs. Like corn, the bean market has to protect itself in the acreage mix, and old crop stocks are running thin in many areas.

  •   Domestic: Bids are steady to stronger this week, as KC added 15 cents and Emporia added a nickel. This western market is running out of available stocks to crush, while demand remains steady. Summer bids and new crop values are firm, to get stocks flowing toward the processors.

  •   Exports: CIF NOLA bids dropped 12 cents for April shipment, further reflecting that there are adequate bushels available for current needs. Bids for May and further out on the curve are steady. Export sales showed net cancellations, mostly due to China cancelling 216k MT. New crop sales were good, with China booking 264k MT, some could have been a switch in delivery period.

  •   Spreads: Spreads traded weaker overall this week, with K/N moving to +4, but has bounced between 5-7 inverse. Deferred spreads saw similar trends, as new crop contracts trade strong to attract bushels.



Marketing new crop.

The milo had lost basis but is still good

Everything is close but seems to have a lot of energy......... supply looks short. No one will tell you as an advisor== it is too risky a guy can look foolish saying something wild like that.  Short supply is something that comes by as a rumor or an aroma.

Overnites are taking a little protection .......... it's a good time to be marketing.