feedyard talk 10/22. 9:30 am ........Wheat leads the way in.........

[sw363535]

Wheat leads the way in short supply and fight for the real acres.

The diminishing acres of wheat in Kansas are obvious as Cotton held its own and milo acres surged in 2021.  Corn is so limited to good groundwater, it will continue to slide lower in actual acres or volume of production in 2022.

2022 wheat acres should be bright green and prevalent.  Yet it is not..... the dry west needed two small rains this fall and much of the crop is barely out of the ground.  Replanting is in process and It is pretty late for that in the upper elevations.

Natural gas is double in price since spring and may not be available for irrigation on poverty grass and water is probably not  availablewith the dry finish to corn and milo.  Nitrogen worse with top dressing highly unlikely at any price if a corn crop is also dependent.

On the feedyard side basis continues strong and a few contracts of 2021 corn are looking for "filler" (coming up short on delivery)(those spring contracts), a local issue but the current strong basis is making it hard to buy bushels with basis pushing corn cash prices into $6+.   Just an indicator that supply may not be what was predicted.  Locations in the sw had a pretty stressful finish for corn.  Especially with marginal water.  (less than 25% of irrigated acres in this ares has strong enough water to finish strong in August and September when hot and no rain for the last 6+ weeks of the season)

No pricing being done on 2022 crops............   The expense uncertainty and fertilizer availability are rendering "covering the bills" estimations impossible.

[ddtfarm1]

Relevant update. Need that water. Our harvest is slowed in the Great Lakes area with excess water and more to come. 

[Hobbyfarmer]

had one surprise swamp area in one field. Was very close to stuck several times with bean head on. Got to get to use  the mud hog to it's maximum ability. Tiling machine has already been here and hopefully cured it.  Main line we tied into was already running half  full. (And three other problem spots got worked over too) 

Been some double digit inflation in tiling prices. 

Forecast calls for two to three inches Sat night and Sunday.

Oh Joy

Five acres of beans to do tomorrow to get done with them.

[sw363535]

A meeting with a few younger guys here yesterday and that is the issue......... of concern.  Where will break even be??

The Beltway inflation deniers should hit full stride soon.  Not many ways to screw with the formula that haven't already been done.   Maybe we will soon be adding the cost of air we breath to the cost of living index......... better hurry because that is part of the environment and we will soon be taxed for airpolution by breathing....just like every other internal combustion entity.

[BA Deere]

Just thinking out loud, but will there come a point where inflation is out of control that none of the Fed`s toolbox is effective?   The debt grows, congress passes bills we can`t afford and the only way to continue is for the fed to create money, just to keep the lights on.  But it`s so bloated and that money can`t help but spill over into the economy.

[ddtfarm1]

We had double digit interest rates and high inflation in the 70s and 80s. It was a time of fence row to fence row ag and high land prices.  A lot of folks took big financial hits coming out of that era and it presented opportunity for others. Capitalist theory working.  I believe that today most people think that some how the guv is supposed to insure a soft landing for all. Not so.

[sw363535]

we been taking a hard landing for several years........ and ignoring it by listening to the political spin.

Homeless and jobless college degrees just being two of the signs..... 

Home loans for double the earning power of jobs guarantees failure.

Double digit interest has been a hidden, unsustainable, Regulation driven, reality for two decades.  If the same formula was applied as was in the 1980's inflation is as bad now as it was with high interest rates..... the increased interest costs are just hidden in regulated cost increases of every expense item we buy.

DC continues to manipulate cost of living data to hide reality..... but every worker knows better.  Every education graduate knows the actual worth of a degree and a job.  

Federal workers, educators, and federal assistance recepients are assured the "party" will bail them out of the wreck being created and they out number everyone else in the voodoo voting booth count.

[ddtfarm1]

I assume you are referring to the us in the farm crowd when refer to  "federal assistance recepients" since we have been under government support for, well, for forever!! 

It reminds me of Reagan when he would rile simple folks up with his government is the problem BS when he and his current party were the government and they didn't have a clue what to do other than to recite that endlessly and run up the deficit to the favor of his richer supporters. I think that's why we are in such disarray now because he, or his handlers, never considered the power of the words of POTUS. Then along came Newt and he went full throttle anti-guv and now we have trump, Bannon and all the insurrectionists. Not sure rallying against educators, etc. is the avenue for a continuing democracy. Plus, it seems so Khmer Rouge and that did not work out well.  

Anyway, hope you get some rain down there, looks like too  much coming this way again.

[sw363535]

Thanks ddt,

I definitely mean Farm economy as well as the others.  We will have folks signing up for fertilizer at any cost thinking congress will fix it if it goes against us.  And the sales pitch this fall and winter will say it again.... buy seed at any cost, there may be a shortage and corn may go to $7.

We expect congress to fix everything....... even when we wish they would not.

[BA Deere]

"federal assistance recipients"?    It`s actually a cruel joke, the organ grinder plays and we dance for a peanut.   Farm subsidies are like being on `Let`s Make a Deal`, you have to bid on a CRP rate if you enroll land and if you guess too low you`re stuck with a "zonk" behind curtain number 2 for ten years.   This guessing of "PLC" or "ARC" you go to meetings and the experts don`t know and say "we project none of them will pay anything, but you might stand the chance of getting a couple bucks an acre if you choose PLC"...yes, literally $2/acre.   And be sure to sign your life away that you weren`t a "sodbuster" to get that.  What`s next, proof of a Covid shot?  

About 20 years ago there was LDP payments, corn was $1.38 cash at the elevator and some little Bigshots maxed out their payment limitations for a few years....but did I mention cash corn was $1.38?  Or maybe to non-farmers, $1.38 corn doesn`t mean anything?  

The subsidized crop insurance is big carrot in the cheap food policy.  It gets jackpot farmers in the fringe to plowup pasture and take a risk on row crops.   It also makes midwest bankers go along with otherwise risky ventures that wouldn`t fly without "revenue assurance" ...all adding to the carryover that Bears love to point to. 

It`s a pretty expensive "free lunch" that we`re getting from the government.