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sw363535
Honored Advisor

feedyard talk 11/4. 12 pm ........The week in review.......

Well profit taking was inevitable at some point.... But lets take inventory, assess the damage, appraise a remodel of the marketing model, if it is even necessary, haul the old dog out to the country and dump her on the side of the road.

Now I gotta say ..... I like where we are......... Our plan has carried us into "prosperous" uncertainty.  A near state of euphoria among the elite pessimists in agriculture.  We should be selling profitable production from 2021 cheaper cash flow, while everything we want to buy is far too expensive for future cash flows.......  Stagnation of production,,, maybe -- lets hope so.

It almost comes down to an old term the smart folk can't remember..... Savings first.  In the bank, in the bin, in the feedlot, in the shed.  Clean it, Put it away, and enjoy a couple of holidays without a spending binge...... Practice safe .....  trades.  Paper ones.  Save the real ones for a time when someone else really needs them

So lets assess

1 wheat is a good place to start.  Enjoying a lofty spot in the $8+ thin air(and the last 4 days did not blow it off that level).  The one mention of strength this week was "Millers buying".  That should give us a clue as to how small the supply is when the millers are making news buying.   But more important, while the market gasped for air this week the wind took the 2022 wheat crop on the high plains down a few notches in the "crop conditions" rating.......  An old saying from the wheat belt fringe... the first two little "blows" of fall stimulate the crop to grow, the next several little spats of wind take it down.  This week it went down several notches.  If you want to price some,   be patient.... and don't sell your seed.

2  Corn....... lets follow an example...... July 22 corn futures prices..... Low for the fall was September 7 at $5.12 range.  then it retested a downward trend in mid October but stalled with a low in the $5.24 area and headed up strongly now in mid harvest.  two weeks later on November 1 that contract could have been sold at $5.92...  The next three days the market retraced and now sits at 5.75....... ----- Is that a bearish move...... did it break in limit moves or did we profit take.... I did.  A 50 cent move in 14 trade days is fine with me.  I'll reown it on the first up day.  Trend is in tact.   I am big on knowing trend and basis is key.... (are they calling you looking for grain or are you calling them to see if their interested?)

3  Beans........Moving on export markets yet stagnant, not really stagnant...... been a down market since it peaked on June 9th.(Mar 22 futures) then fell over $2 in 9 days and spent the next 4+ months trying but returning to the low $12 area....IMO, the cheap beans of 2020 killed the 2021 market.  Some trigger around June 9 convinced a lot of producers to contract 2021 beans, and every time the market offered anything higher more were sold.   All good marketing moves looking back.  Profit when it's available.  But now beans are too close to Brazil harvest.  Will they drop -- probably not... fertilizer prices will hold bean acres up by taking some corn acres.  Will they rocket up.... not without a new supply limiting event.  Argentina has lowered acres for this winter.  Brazil may make up for it or they might lower yield by expanding to the fringe.  Stagnation but in a price range we can live with.

4. Cotton....... needs to go back to Asia on the boats, but supply is limited.... California has decided wine is more important than cotton or grains.  Last years midwest cotton was poor.  The south won't expand cotton enough to make up for California.  Market will hold strong prices.

5 Feeder Cattle -- will continue to respond to Corn (feed costs)---inversely   Beef will be in high demand with our new "smart" rich folk eating the $14 cuts and the poor eating hamburger still at $4.  We're ok as long as the woke don't discover their not rich.  The solid backing for meat is that it is much more a global product than ever before..  A lot hinges on Corn demand.... and the new high output from Ethanol really helps.(last few days)

6.  Implement manufacturers........ the trend may be a bit bearish......... or a lot.  Good used equipment will carry us for a couple more years and lower grain production is trending now in the 3rd or 4th year....... Water resources continue to diminish

7.   Chickens.  have a solid future but this week they really caught my eye With a Bloomberg article on solar powered chicken coops for free range chickens, moving them to new pasture daily.  If you can't fertilize any other way............ well read it while your enjoying the pumpkin pie judging you need to do.   Purdue bought out a company in NW ks that developed the idea and with mega bucks and Bloomberg genius reporting on it what can go wrong?    Sort of like buying a Mercedes for a paper route.  But then the big bucks crowd will order congress to put a $4 price floor on each egg and force the poor to buy them with extra food stamps while they save the planet from chickens that are content to stay home.

 

Enjoy the rest of harvest ...... here at the chicken ranch we went back to the combines to harvest milo this afternoon.

Frost finally caught us yesterday, after the wind blew a little, and after the damp rainless cloudy day that "brought relief to the high plains", we're back in the saddle.  Forecast remains dry so we might make it before the turkey slaughter.  --

Eat more beef.-- and pumpkin pie, and Braums ice cream.

 

 

 

5 Replies
Hobbyfarmer
Honored Advisor

Re: feedyard talk 11/4. 12 pm ........The week in review.......

Need to give honorable mention to Braums peach pie with that ice cream.

sw363535
Honored Advisor

Re: feedyard talk 11/4. 12 pm ........The week in review.......

Sign on the door

CNN free shopping

I am learning to avoid a store that survives on a drive up window........ Braums never did close their stores to guests.  We had to wave at each other from a distant table but they kept their people employed.  That has earned them more of my business.

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BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Re: feedyard talk 11/4. 12 pm ........The week in review.......

The Bulls got Halloween, perhaps the Bears will get Thanksgiving and then the Bulls will get Christmas.  I`m hoping the Bulls get St Patricks Day so I can sell corn to pay taxes    🙂

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k-289
Senior Advisor

Re: feedyard talk 11/4. 12 pm ........The week in review.......

Would  you  call  $14  beef  cuts  a  '' nugget ''  (  Webster Synonym )  precious object ,  and or  is  this  the  time  for  beef  nuggets - check  off  marketing  skit  -  -  -  

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illinifarmer
Advisor

Re: feedyard talk 11/4. 12 pm ........The week in review.......

CcRrOoOoKkSs

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