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sw363535
Honored Advisor

feedyard talk 6/16. ..........see--what is being traded.

What determines the contract month that is reported..... what is the lead month?  for a couple weeks now it has been new crop December corn and Nov beans. Buyers are tired of seeing the carnage in green....... promoters are ignoring old crop.  Old crop open interest at 350k contracts is inferior to clipping the new crop fear to the tune of 580k contracts of open interest..........Suddenly the lenders are fronting the buyers???   Get her sold???  Get her sold???  They always have advice.    (time to have that candid discussion about sharing the margin calls?)

(I like the fact that Amazon is so far extended down this path of selling something you don't have.  Just like Sears .... )

But that is the issue---- selling is happening because producers don't have anything to sell.  So they take bets on the future.  With the assurance from usda that the little corn now at risk will be grand.  Usda even pays for crop insurance to enhance the ruse.  Yet we never get to sell those insurance "guaranteed" bushels.  They are DC Paper.  They won't fill that sold contract.

Thought for the grain producer...... usda can guarantee their results..... call it 14 Billion in February and show it in December....  Yet they don't start their marketing year until September 1....... Why would anyone else at a point when you can't guarantee to even have a harvest, and definitely a yield.... or a buyer.  Do we just need to feel uncomfortable??

 

Keep the eye on the ball.  meet it as it comes to you, and enjoy the best year you've seen in decades.  Failure this year will take time and personal contribution of poor judgement..   Rethink the urge to hate yourself in the fall!  We stomach difficult decisions when we limit the loss, but when we are limiting the potential of our marketing at the same time as our production is facing reality, mistakes can be bring self loathing. In what is a year we should enjoy.

How often do you get a chance to reshape your marketing success and sell what you have instead of selling your future. Don't get me wrong, there is a place for every marketing tool.... this just ain't it....IMO

Demand is wearing the new string bikini.............keep the eye on it....... discretely but intently.  Cattle Today are facing feedlot costs but mostly on yesterdays 2020 corn prices and bigger cattle coming off cheaper eats.  Not one word yet about the poor consumer,  or cheaper meats at the store..... 125 fats and 158 feeders..... Ye ha........ And all they got for the next 60 days is cheaper salvage wheat and a little Brazilian corn at a very high price.  The beginning bushels on the 2021 corn crop will see continued high basis over futures and an empty pipeline..... 

enjoy........ and feed the tip jar.

 

Notice ........... Today corn is actually finishing up 8  Yet they are offering new crop -8..........   ask yourself which crop year should I be selling?   And how do I get there when I need to be.

 

1 Reply
k-289
Senior Advisor

Re: feedyard talk 6/16. ..........see--what is being traded.

Kansas  being  94%  drought  free  -  will  that mean limit  down  for  the Sunflower State , only - Smiley LOL 

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