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sw363535
Honored Advisor

feedyard talk 7/21 .........nearing one week to August

Lets assess where we are with August so near ......

Beaver stockyard this week had another good run of big yearlings coming off grass and prices holding very well.  Anything on the steer side with 565 lbs or more was bringing on the top side of $1000 a head.

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The thing that caught my eye this week was in grains where selling wheat at the local elevator is (just after harvest) paying the producer a +5 basis........... $6.65 now.   We are 437 miles sw of Kansas City.  I have never seen a positive basis on wheat after harvest.  Freight keeps us in the -50 to -65 range most of the last 50 years.  If wheat is short or they need our drouthy protein back east we feel good at -20 to -25

So Basis needs to be noticed while Reuters tries to cheapen up China's grain sources .  Traders tout the throbbing corn plants mutating in the corn belt.  So lets take a good look.  

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Not feed yard prices, or kc broker deals(they're calling every week looking for wheat or corn) --just common old every day elevator board basis.

Cash wheat --------basis +5.       ($6.65)

New cropwht     july22----  Basis -40.    ($6.28)

Cash corn------------  Basis.   +1.25.   ($6.91)

New CCorn. Dec 21-------Basis     +50       ($6.12)

Cash milo( Grain sorghum).          +65.      ($6.31)

New Crop Milo 21...................Basis.  +70.      ($6.32)

Soybeans Cash....................Basis.  +30.         ($14.06)

New Crop Beans 21.............Basis   -90.        ($12.86)

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In our area the feed yards set the basis for corn, milo, and this year wheat.    Cargill is the only buyer for beans in western ks so they set the basis and won't give in until they can't find any more...... congressional monopoly.  obvious and shows in the basis at every elevator.  Now remember the end users are bidding 35 to 60 cents above the elevator basis but not beans. Every time the brokers call and offer more for wheat.... the feedyard matches it .

Basis in the grain trade close to the bunk is not betting on above average corn yields.  If there was an outside chance our local basis would be showing it.  
Those feeder cattle aren't slowing down a bit on the march to the feed bunk.  

Sideline point on the economy and what it takes to raise the "record" crops ............ Had a long visit with a communications executive this week who was manning a cell phone/wifi store locally yesterday who fired two and lost two employees yesterday before 9 am--partly because the local meat packer offered a $3000 signing bonus and a beginning wage at $21/hr---of course the discussion was on work ethic and work force issues like the new brutality by gender bending.  (I been waiting for a mobil hot spot unit from that office for over a year and they never have them.  Lazy employees that play on their phones and don't answer calls..... or the door.... security camera's document that too.

I don't think producers raise surpluses without incentive of profit or pride.  There are a lot of ways not to show up for work, even when we do.  There is just too much disincentive to produce.

 

 

 

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6 Replies
k-289
Senior Advisor

Re: feedyard talk 7/21 .........nearing one week to August

Profit  &  Pride  =  subject  topics  for  endless  un-solid  answers  ( attitudes ) - from  Greed  is  a Good  God ,  to  I  was  looking  for  a  job  when  I  found  this  one  -  -  -

Washing  your  own  car ,  or  the  bosses  LIMO   ---

 Content  with  a  family  outings &  gatherings  vs.  bragging  rights  of  3  trips  annually  to  Vegas , Disney something or other ,  Caribbean  wedding  gala's   etc. etc. ,  while  the  plastic  accounting  device being  stretched  to  the  limit -  -  -

Solve  this  one ,  when  live  hogs   collapsed  to  $9 / cwt.,  with  the  story being  of  over  production , while   being  raised  with  """  small  '''' operations ,  to  now  day   ''' record market  level$ '''  C  M  Trade  figures  of  ''' captive  supply '''  along  with  endless  advertisements  for  ''' job  opportunities '''  at  the  so  called ,   pig  power  house outfits ,  mega  dairy ,  mega feedlot  - (  flashing  warning signs along US 54 )  with  the  neighborhood  aspects  of  dust , flies , odor , water  issues go  unsolved -   ??? 

This  being  the why the  Lydians  in ,  600 BC , eventually  , developed  a '' 2  sided  ''  coin  - maybe  " ? " 

MASKS  &  hearing  protection  being  a  must  while  on  the  job , is  a  whole  NUTHER  topic  -  -  -  

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BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Re: feedyard talk 7/21 .........nearing one week to August

Mike Tyson said "everyone has a plan until they get punched in the face"   and the 8¢ hogs were a punch in the face of the independent hog farmer.  If you wanted to continue in the industry, you signed away your soul, but like all ponzi schemes those that got in early made out like bandits....and well, those getting in at this tail end probably no better off than those of us dumb enough to be open to the repeat of 8¢ hogs.   But I have gray hair and haven`t been vaccinated for Covid so my days are numbered.  How ya gonna keep `em down on the farm? 

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sw363535
Honored Advisor

Re: feedyard talk 7/21 .........nearing one week to August

I disagree, It is all the same topic.......... the nonsense diversions to get paid to do nothing from home.  Infesting every aspect of life.

If congress decides to send trillions to save the raccoon species.  Half the blue(and a few red/blue from Maine) voters in the US would claim to be in a relationship with one.  Many would already have raccoon genetics and blood tests from a doctor (with a lot of free time) to prove it.  Employers would be struggling with proper linguistics for the new "species" surfer.  

It is all about free cash....... when the money dries up we all need a job to feed ourselves....... I can't think of a thing in the news that does not relate to living off the neighbors taxes(federal dole).  Even the olympic athlete protesting because they are wearing the USA uniform----- spoiled brats fight social injustice while living off the ______(the fruits of their labor???).  Sadly no.

The nonsense stops when the cash stops flowing.

Does this society produce mega corn crops or does our uncle just keep predicting them as a diversion.  

I think the disincentive is just too great, even in the black market, conservative under the table trade.

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k-289
Senior Advisor

Re: feedyard talk 7/21 .........nearing one week to August

E  W  G   subsidy  site ,  can  be  quite  humbling ,  and  the  patriots , cowboys , chiefs ,  cubs  might  not  agree  with  the  bloodline analogy - -  -

Which  is  more  frustrating ,  F  S  A   line  or  canceled  flight  line  at  D  I  A  or  O'hare  Chicago  - - -  

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sw363535
Honored Advisor

Re: feedyard talk 7/21 .........nearing one week to August

answer is ----- the one your in.

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k-289
Senior Advisor

Re: feedyard talk 7/21 .........nearing one week to August

Keep  in  mind,  there are  available, time share  slots for  our  ' '  Virtual  Haircuts ' '  and  they  are  going  faster  than   Short Position $$$$$   in  a  Limit  Up , Bull  Market ,  and  no  lines  or  crowd  hassles  -  -  -

Crews  on  Container Vessels  can  share  every ones  grief ,  at  holding  position,  off  Long  Beach  harbor  - - -

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