feedyard talk 9/20. 11:15 am .......knocking 2022 in the head (harvest.... and more)

[sw363535]

well a few days ago someone pulled into a field and started the mess that will be the 2022 corn crop..... dismal is not a sad enough word.

Irrigated is all there is in the sw.... unless you were lucky enough to live under that cloud that delivered enough to have some milo or dry land corn.... that will be less than 2% of the acres planted.

Corn began with several circles in the area going to a couple of dairy's as silage.  DISMAL means most of those circles have since been planted to wheat for harvest in 2023.... and so far that will be the extent of the sw wheat in 2023 as drylands is sitting on 6 feet of dry subsoil(if there are enough gallons of irrigation water left to keep it alive).  Okla has planted a few acres of optimistic hope on dry land, but if federal crop insurance was actually crop insurance the paperwork needs to be in process.  The few spears that did come up will fall to the wind and the dust that holds them up now will be a footnote in the winter skies of the corn belt.

The irrigated corn harvest has begun with the circles that don't have enough water(below 600 gallon per minute per 125 acre circle). Yields so far are anywhere from 60 bu/acre to 140..... and enough acres are in the elevator that the scales and tweezers are out and picking through it.... as we are wondering if there will be enough "better" to blend.  I just observed a generous sorting of "damaged" kernels end with a rating of 13%........ and that load was 16 moisture with a 53 test weight.

Circles with 600 to 800 g/min. water will yield better but the grain damage will persist and varying yields per foot......

There just wasn't an amount of water that could overcome the pounding heat and wind of the spring and heat of August.

With an average annual rainfall of 18 to 20 inches, most every location will finish the season with less than 7 inches that covers a time frame of July 2021 to Oct 2022.  And no one can forget that time frame had 42 weeks with at least one day of 70 mph winds.  The two measurable rains in August... were followed by 100 degree heat over 4 weeks and nearly totally calm winds.......... 

We can't wait to get it over with........ 

While DC sells off the oil reserves maybe we need usda to sell off some of those reserves they claim we raise every year.

Sell the projected carry for 2023 while they're at it.... Never too early to start claiming that --- no big deal for a lying bureaucrat.

Soybeans..... stressed out and not going to fare any better than corn.  Most lost the battle with corn for water.

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Prices continue to go up..... with futures at 6.92 for December corn.  Basis in sw at elevators is + $1.40.  That is $8.33 across the scales at a coop.

Two notes Basis continues to adjust to the "real" crop and buyers are still buying.......... second. forget the blow of nonsense about export demand going away........ Sales continue each week..... This is a world wide problem and price is adjusting.

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There are two issues at work in the markets raising prices............. drought world wide...... and devaluation of the dollar.

I don't think we have seen the affects of both by any means...... I bought a tool at a local store yesterday.  There were 6 price stickers on that tool....   All 6 stickers were placed in 2022 as prices increased.... nearly a 100% increase in 10 months. $15. now $30+................sweep blades were $140 each last winter now are $475 if you can wait for them.  Is the price of corn keeping up with the increase (inflation). No.  not even close.  Considering drought and inflation(devaluating dollar.... purposely by DC's printing and borrowing handouts) prices could easily be double where they are and should be..... Where should the price of corn or beans be????      What do you think?

Clearly this will be the ugliest corn harvest sw in memory.  Outside of the fumonison insurance shuffle.... which was very local.  This mess covers more acres than Illinois and Iowa combined.  

[k-289]

The  folks  that  repriced  -  applied  stickers  -  were  part  of  what  free  market  scheme ,  - ?  Apparent  no  $upply  chain  problems  with  those  pricing  tabs  -  hmmmm =$=$=$

[Hobbyfarmer]

I've been the length of South Dakota.

All is not lost.

Saw one elevator starting a pile of Milo and a pile of corn west of Mitchell 50ish miles.

The beans look better west of the Missouri river than east of it.

Lot of decent crops along I-90.

As a % of what they should be, the western crops are better looking.

The sunflowers and Milo look good.

Some Areas not along the interstate have burned up .

Saw fields of milet that was initially difficult to identify, not enough out there to even slow down a lawn mower.

[k-289]

Slaughter  Cow , increased,   volumes  in  S.  Dakota  tell  the  real  story  = = =

[Hobbyfarmer]

the cow guy's are scrambling for cow chow. Friend of mine is  chopping as much zeroed out corn as he can 3 rows at a time at $50/ton out there.

Hay moving down interstate 90 going east and west???

Saw hay fields with at least 1000 bales  needing picked up.

[Wind]

Relative in WC Kansas chopped 600 A of zeroed out corn, another one said his corn was so short it would not pay the chopper to chop it.  They are selling their older cows.  Everything is brown.  

The big question is this,  will the dry weather continue and creep deeper into the Midwest next year?