flooded acres

[Mike M2692830]

Back in Feb at the Ag meetings, we were told that the acre picture for corn, beans, wheat and cotton were very delicate and one crop wan't going to gain on another without a good fight. Now, when one looks at all the pictures of the flooding going on around the Mississippi and they are talking millions of acres under water, it would seem that balance has been broken and it will be a matter of time when USDA finally mathematically figures out the loss. And add in some late planted figures too....MikeM

[BA Deere]

David Kruses` commentary on this is very insightfull. He basically says acres and yield doesn`t mean much, either way there with be pipeline.  Just my thinking, if the USDA came out with cold hard facts now and we got our $8 corn out of the way and users could adjust and fringes would have incentive.  El was saying 148 yield and that coupled with 90 mil acres..Uff-da!   El gets a bum rap, "predicting 20 of the last 2 doughts" and such, but he only gives odds. When he says "50%" that isn`t 100%.  USDA is hoping for the "Never bet against the American farmer" axiom, to which there`s the "Mother nature bats last" axiom

[jrsiajdranch]

Tomorrow is may 15 and we don't have any corn around you can row from the PU. That must mean we are gonna have a bumper crop! Right? No we are in big deep doo doo here if they think we are gonna harvest 84 million plus we better get it planted first and then have it come up. And right now we are only about half that number. and it is may 14th!  Doesn't matter if it is flooded acres or droughted acres or what this sure isn't setting up for a big national yield.

[Nebrfarmr]

No corn rowing here yet, at least not what I can see from the road.  Even the guys who planted in April don't have corn showing, and if it doesn't pop through pretty soon, I think yields will start to suffer.  It rained again, so I don't know who is better off.  The ones who planted in cold ground, hoping it would warm up, or the ones who didn't plant yet, and are hoping it dries off some (and warms up).  It was cloudy wuith a high of 46 degrees yesterday, and was 34 last night.   Soil won't warm up very fast in those condidtions.  However, I live in Nebraska, so that can change in a day.

[arnfarm735]

I too live in Nebraska, east central.  We started planting corn April 12 and went for 2 days.  When the forecast looked so cold and wet we stopped after getting about 12% of our corn in.  That corn finally came up around May 7.  These little golden kernals are amazing; after over three weeks they still came up and with a decent stand (93%). Normally our corn planted that early takes 2 weeks to come up.  One of the early planted fields was looking like a candidate to replant until a couple 95 degree days last week and rain on May 11 it made it through also.

We finished planting corn on May 5 and beans on May 10.  Amazing, after not getting back into the field until April 21 after those couple earlier planted fields.  Not too far from our record finish of May 5 last year.

Today (May 14) most of our corn is up and "rowable."

[Mike M2692830]

cut and pasted this from news article from CNN when the ACE open another leeve today

Nonetheless, 1.4 million acres in Mississippi, including 602,000 acres where crops are growing, could flood, said Rickey Grey of the state's Department of Agriculture.

Across the South and lower Midwest, floodwaters have covered about 3 million acres of farmland, eroding for many farmers what could have been a profitable year for corn, wheat, rice and cotton, officials said

.....MikeM

[SouthWestOhio]

Does several feet of floodwater create any long term compaction problems?

[Pupdaddy]

Southwest...I have about 140 acres..that sits in a bottomland and it floods probably 4 out of 5 years. I haven't noticed any real lasting effect of flooding..probably because that kind of land has topsoil that is 4-5 feet thick. You really can't find any subsoil to plow up..and I think that mitigates any yield loss. Some say that microbial activity goes down in flooded land...but I haven't documented any yet. It is good land to farm in my opinion..but I'm afraid in future years..some idiot is going to say you can't farm it any more..and want to take it out of production in the interest of soil conservation.

[Canuck_2]

And it is not just the Mississippi that is being allowed to flood farm land

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/story/2011/05/15/mb-flooding-dike-manitoba.html

Manitoba on Saturday made a deliberate diversion of Assiniboine River water to avoid a wider, uncontrolled flood. The controlled release of water could inundate a 180 square kilometres area east of the city of Portage la Prairie as Assiniboine water runs into the La Salle River watershed.

The province has struggled with record flooding along the Assiniboine in central and western Manitoba and the breach is intended to take pressure off dikes downstream and spare 850 homes from being inundated.

Floodwaters have swamped low-lying farmland, cut off roads and forced more than 1,300 people to leave low-lying areas in Brandon, where temporary dikes are the only thing keeping homes in the city's valley dry. Winnipeg, to the east, is not affected. 

And in Ontario it is wet again/still. Some estimates are 50% of corn planted and maybe a few soybeans.

May 10 is considered last date for optimum yield on average and it is forecast to be wet for the next 7 days then will need a couple more days to dry. Late planted corn is assured for many in Ontario and at least some of what is planted was 'mudded in' so will be subject to problems if we turn dry later in the season (maybe should say when we turn dry as most years we have some dry areas or periods)