http://motherboard.vice.com/2012/9/10/we-are-now-one-year-and-counting-from-global-riots-complex-sys...
Seems likely although some of the author's context about the paper will probably leave you flat.
Here's the deal, whether it is fair in regards to the way we thought the world works. Members of the species homo sapiens get born somewhere in the world and no matter how mean their circumstances their ingenuity and will of self preservation permits some to survive for a while. And reproduce.
And as the article notes, there is nothing more reliable than the fact that they will get nasty when starvation even comes near and will kill other homo sapiens who they may, even fleetingly, view as in the way of their quest to feed themselves and their families.
Well...... With those facts in place, this is how I'd play it if I was a human master of this universe. First I'd put policies in place that created an artificial food shortage (US ethanol, commodity financialization) and while I was waiting for the inevitable to occur in food deficit parts of the world I'd be getting the people who I want in place ready to go. Then when the tinder was right I'd start using social media to light the spark and then in other ways I'd nudge the "revolution" in the direction that suited me.
Perhaps most of that game has already been played out in the strategically vital middle east- only a bit of Syria and Iran left to go on the "list of 7 countries" that were purported to be circulated before the Iraq invasion.
But if you follow the thought experiment further the other prize is China, which can't possibly achieve its social and geopolitical goals without an abundant suppy of food for import. That would be a longer game than the ME but worth keeping in mind.
If so, the good news is that the grain price boom may continue longer than other historical events. The bad news is thst it is because it has been an instrument of existential evil, but hey, you can't have everything.
