for all you super bulls, a five wave top

[hardnox604008]

In your count that would make 3 the shortest of the motive waves which violates elliott principle.

Better count is that 5 ended with the Bernanke/election top and this was wave B of an expanded flat ABC correction.

But same diff- it is just that da boyz padded their pockets with a year end ramp and took the B wave higher than probability would have indicated (and made everyone even more uber bullish). But it still fits with elliott guidelines.

Best, h

[hardnox604008]

In an expanded flat the C ave low should come in under the low of A.

Reasonable destination, under $5.

[hardnox604008]

I stand corrected, your count is valid also.

[Palouser]

Just to give you technocrats a bad time

I have no doubt that various charting schemes do reflect human behavior to some degree. However, some of the fundamentals underlying the current situation in grain are strictly physical in nature. For instance, I have no doubt a correction triggered by the next report could occur - regardless of what is in the report, ala December. Just seems to work that way - and that is human behavior. However, is 5 waves (or whatever strong charting signal) going to make it rain in Argentina, increase our ending inventories in corn and beans, reduce demand for quality wheat, guarantee a decent acres/crop in North America next year? These are some of the issues underlying the strong grain prices now.

I suspect that human behavior may result in yet another increase in prices within these next two months as we get closer to deciding who is going to plant what this next year and how ending stocks will look. If Argentina gets rain then this may be moderated, and if they don't then some are going to be looking very hard at China's continuing imports - which are not going away.

[Red Steele]

Makes me also wonder about other places that print a lot of money...Mexico comes to mind. Do the chartists in Mexico take historical prices and multilpy by ten every time the peso is moved over a  decimal point?

Talking about a 30 year cycle when you have non-constant measures of value seems pretty pointless.

[hardnox604008]

In the AOM (all one market), possible confirmation of completed 5 wave up in the DJIA and SP500. Unconfirmed in the NAZ for now.

[time:thetippingpoint]

Just a point that might add value, it is important to not get caught up in the media hype.

Far from declining, the dollar index is higher than it was in late 2007. So, you are correct, the value of the currency has changed. You are also incorreect, it has increased in value, not declined.

The global speculators have done an excellent job bidding "expected" inflation into the price of things, and thus encouraging supply growth well in advance of when it is needed. This has allowed the world to dodge a major global weather induced short-crop supply problem.

I happen to like Buck's 5 wave pattern, but we all must realize new crop corn will not likely top until the first week of April, like it almost always does after a weather induced short crop. Beans were not a short-crop and thus instead of topping last which they usually do, they might top first this time around.

Anyone holding 2010 crop, is taking some serious risks, but since it is an undeserved windfall, some go to Vegas, some hold grain in the bin. Fun for both....sometimes.

[vrbuck]

I see it differently,  The short crop isn't in the new crop year.  The short crop is in the 2010 crop year hence the huge premium.  I do believe we reached value that rations demand,  but I could be wrong.

[hardnox604008]

Hi vrbuck,

Your count is still valid but you need the recent high to hold, or close to it. Feels like it will for a while..

For it to work you'd have to call this a wave B in an expanded flat. That would generally tend to make a downside objective for C  proportional to the amount that wave B exceeded the previous wave 5 top or about .15.

Basis CH that would get around 5.80, which doesn't seem impossible and wouldn't even shake anyone up too much.

Then we'd decide what we're really going to do- is it a major top or do we extend?

Best, h

[p-oed Farmer]

time...... You talk of the weather induced short crops?....... I do not understand your thought process in regard to the concept of short crops......... In Soybeans we had big acres and a near record yield that came off a record number of bu out of SA...... We have had two huge crops when you put them together......

In corn we only had the second or third largest yielding corn in history .......Yes we did have areas that had disappointing yields but over all the crop certainly was a good crop...... I would contend that in corn we are victims of over expectations  from the seed companies that have led the markets and farmer for that matter that these new Bo Derrick hybrids would always yield higher....... My point being is that I think it is a stretch to look at this years market like short crop markets of the past...... p-oed