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Honored Advisor

for sale:

two for one sale

Buy one get one free

 

One year ago last Feb I sold corn for $7.82

 

Just checked local price... $3.70 bushel for corn.

 

For all those who thought we were too high,... happy now?

 

Wonder how long the Brazilian s with a three dollar freight charge will keep planting?

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Contributor

Re: for sale:

Thanks for the laugh! I checked yesterday and we had $3.60 down here. We started farming three and half years ago. What a roller coaster ride! This is why our country has an average age of a farmer over 60 years old. This makes it really hard on a beginning farmer especially if daddy isn't a big farmer to help you out or you have no family ties at all . Not sure how we will feed the world in 2050 when all the old farmers are dead and the younger ones went bankrupt.
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Veteran Contributor

Re: for sale:

Great thought !!! I'm afraid we all will shortin our lives a bit with this financial burden we are about to experience ?? No one holding a gun to our heads and making us farm !!!! My banker once told me!! We over produce missed our head and shot ourselves in the foot once again !! AG-MOVEMENT anyone????
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Senior Advisor

Re: for sale:

Silly people, don't you know food comes from the grocery store.  Smiley Very Happy

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Veteran Contributor

Re: for sale:

Looked at some flour facts today!! They make a minimum of 60 loafs of bread per bushel of wheat!!! Can buy the cheap bread at 1.19 a loaf!!! Some a lot better like whole wheat for 2.65 !! An average of say 2 bucks a loaf!!! 6.22 a bushel here okie Blaine county !!! With a producing flour mill in town!!! He has more money than he knows what to do with!! Why??? Look at the cost to final product ratio!!! 6.22 >€ 120.00 ?? Gross profit of 113.78!!!! Per bushel !!! Now who's letting them selves get ......???? Yes some other expenses like twist tie and plastic sack! Probably 6.23 a Loaf 🍡 well that's shish kebab???
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Esteemed Advisor

Re: for sale:

Regardless of age...the market gave you many chances to take profitable prices plus you have the fed crop ins gaurantee...look in the mirror, do some studying and learn to develop and implement a plan to avoid taking low prices, especially after such an easy year to manage the markets. It won't ever get easier than this one has been so far.

 

And before I get creamed by everyone...we all make mistakes...not condemning this young man...but the sooner he learns the more likely it is he will survive to be a prosperous old farmer.

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Advisor

Re: for sale:

So time what is your advice for him now? We all can play should have...but how does a seasoned, educated individual get out of this mess? I am sure I am not the only one wanting some input as most everyone probably wishes they had sold more.
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Veteran Advisor

Re: for sale:

Lots of flocks said they wouldn't sell corn for 5 bucks. Guess they were right!
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Advisor

Re: for sale:

Something I posted a while back for the youngsters. The situation may present only a half dozen times in a career but it is a good thing to recognize it the first time rather than having to learn from the school of hard knocks.

 

When there is a certified weather damaged crop, such as 2012, of course you clean out the bins and sell as much of that crop year as you can comfortably do, but it is a high probability paying proposition to get something on for the next two years. Probably a good chunk for the following year and something nominal to get the next started.

 

It's probably worth giving a dime or so for somebody to take it as an HTA as margin could become worrisome at some point in the stretch.

 

I'll submit that it was reasonable and prudent to have put 10% or so 2014 sales on in 2012 and to have bumped it harder, another 20% or so.

 

When you have a nice high average it is a whole lot easier psychologically  to add some on the spring rally.

 

In the real world, the 2013 sales made in 2102 didn't look or feel that great at the peak of the 2013 weather spike but turned out to be good sales. Not that much better than what you could have gotten but that assumes you have the nerves to sell at the height of uncertainty.

 

If a half dozen of those events present over a career, say 1980, '83, '88, '93, ('95, a bit of an outlier as to how it unfolded), and 2012, there will probably be one where it doesn't follow the script due to events. That's why I suggest going lightly and averaging in although the strategy was vaild in ALL the years I mention.

 

Also worth noting that it was a long stretch- 1995-2012 between the last two events, '03 beans excepted.

 

Probably will be some events offering multiple-year opportunities in the leaner period ahead, but no telling when or how many.

 

 

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Highlighted
Contributor

Re: for sale:

So with all this wisdom floating around here will we make a bounce here or keep falling?
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