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Advisor

forget the goberment reports looks at the satellite images

http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/vci/VH/vh_browse.php

 

If you look at the VHI images comparing last year drought stricken crops to this year we are looking at a train wreck.  Just by the satellite image we have a crop that is 25 percent lower then last year at this time.  Forget the funny games the government can play at just look at the hard core fundementals.  Even the so called garden spots in the east where better last year at this time.

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Veteran Contributor

Re: forget the goberment reports looks at the satellite images

The only reason Wisconsin looks so green on the 2013 map is because all of the fields that were suppose to be row crops are covered in weeds from not getting planted..........

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Veteran Contributor

Re: forget the goberment reports looks at the satellite images

I quickly went back to 2009 and it shows much worse than that year our most recent late planted year.  The story is not over yet no matter what fairy tale USDA whispers today.

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Honored Advisor

Re: forget the goberment reports looks at the satellite images

Thanks for posting that VR. This is going to be a year when many will get an education on the terms "growth" and "development", Elwynn Taylor had a good explaination once said in his class there was a 300lb Cyclone freshman lineman still with alot of baby fat, digging boogers, spacing off.  Elwynn said "Now there was a case of a whole lot of growth but not much development"Smiley Happy

 

A neighbor planted some corn on about the 8th of June, it`s beautiful, knee high, dark green, probably be hip high by the 4th.  However, it was planted the 8th of June! a USDA bean counter would drive by and say "that field looks excellent!" and it does, but that does not reflect the development of the crop.

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Advisor

Re: forget the goberment reports looks at the satellite images

What I laugh at is all the so called experts around Chicago that Talk down the farmer like we are a bunch of hillbilly hicks.  All they do is gauge what the traders are doing at the board then talk "rain makes grain".  In this age the poor farmers have been weeded out.  We are much more sophisticated and knowledgable that many give us credit for.  All I need is a computer and a satellite to judge this crop and it makes me wonder what they use to look at a crop.

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Frequent Contributor

Re: forget the goberment reports looks at the satellite images

Of course ther is less vegation than last year.......Rows were closed on the beans and corn was tasseling.......Meaningless to consider vegation growth as a yield indicator at this time......Compare them in a month, then it may relate a bit to yield potential.....JP

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Advisor

Re: forget the goberment reports looks at the satellite images

he vhi map has been used and archived since 2005.  We have had droughts and floods and early planting and late planting.  2013 is the worst map in the archive, it makes me want to throw up.  The closest year was 2008, and this year is 5 percent worse then that year.

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Frequent Contributor

Re: forget the goberment reports looks at the satellite images

Vince, Don't get me wrong. it has some gravity. 165 average is off the board and even 155 maybe can not even be attained, but 150 is plenty for this year. Early developement is only one factor in many, that determines yield. July and August weather is the largest factor by far.....can we still get 150-155?, pretty easy if get regular rains as well as plenty of sun and warm in July and August....That is my point, this crop IS going to poorer than it would have been with a better spring, but July and August will play the larger part in determining if it is going to be a bit below average or a bad crop. Too early too say....JP

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Veteran Contributor

Re: forget the goberment reports looks at the satellite images

vr let be get this straight--- you think there is a public website satellite image that is a better predictor of corn yields than the USDA?

 

And that the CBOT traders are not smart enough to look at it?   You may think the traders don't give  the farmers much due- well I would suggest you need to give the traders a little more credit.

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Veteran Contributor

Re: forget the goberment reports looks at the satellite images

These are much better maps to relate year on year or monthly changes.  Take a look.....

 

http://kars.ku.edu/products/greenreport/gr2013/p2513greenmaps2.html

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