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Honored Advisor

Re: forget the goberment reports looks at the satellite images

With the exception of central Ne and SD the green areas are only the ones with large #'s of forests and trees.

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Honored Advisor

Re: forget the goberment reports looks at the satellite images

Come on now Vince, it is clear that you gents out in IA and MN have simply been crying wolf for weeks now. You get one spring that is similar to a normal spring for Ohio and the wolf is got you by the throat. I must say though, if you are going to lie to us on here, why didn't you all lie to USDA when they called?   Ah yes, you were secretly short, blow and going it you might say.

 

Ok, just kidding,

this is probably the most bizarre number I can ever remember them printing, and I can remember alot of strange numbers. Ah well, off to Symphony on the Prairie, the violins just don't care about the IA/MN corn crop, and neither do I for now. Thankfully.

 

Before anyone says it, yes I guess I should have rehedged the corn, just dumb, trying to be too rationale in an irrational world.

I guess that is why we kept the bean hedges and all the 2014 stuff in place. Besides, no way in the world I am going to hedge something on the last day of the quarter in this environment. Rather take $5, or $4.90 next week.

I must say though it is starting to make the hog farm look good for the first time in years. :-) 

 

 

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Veteran Contributor

Re: forget the government reports looks at the satellite images

The farmer has lost some credibility with the trade in my opinion.  I don't think they (the trade) listen due to the "cry wolf" mentality in the country.  It doesn't matter if you agree with the reports or not, or even if they are as inaccurate as some think.  They are the numbers we will trade them until new information comes out.  You can fight and whine all you want, but it is what it is.  I agree with KStater in that the traders know more than they get credit for and I would agree that farmers know more than they get credit for.  The difference in my opinion is that the farmer is emotionally attached and often talks their own position or rationale, (ie. Bullish when long, bearish when short).  Even IF we lose some acreage down the road (which we most likely will) we are gonna have a much bigger stocks number.  The contract low in December corn is at $4.01 and November beans is at $9.25, think we will test them?? 

 

Also, comparing satellite images with last year this time is a little suspect isn't it?  We are way behind last year from a growing days perspective.  Although we are closer to normal this year than we were last year from a growing days perspective. 

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Senior Contributor

Re: forget the goberment reports looks at the satellite images

 
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Veteran Advisor

Re: forget the goberment reports looks at the satellite images

statistically significant for week 26, as well......compared to last 7 yrs.

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