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Veteran Advisor

from the Parlor pit 7-14

WELL BY GOLLY!  It started with a flash of light from the west to the east.........  And then I saw bright lights ...................  It was a brilliant display of yellow and green........... Suddenly I could smell this sulfur like smell...................... I thought this is it.................I have died and gone to hell................. Well at least computer purgatory..............about 2 weeks ago we had an awesome lightning storm unfortunatley my trusty ole computer didn't make it. Oh we have it on life support trying to get back files and stuff but I do not believe it is gonna survive the death panel.  My kids want a new one and so does the wife. Right now it is 5 to one.  I do not think it will survive the final vote. I hope I can get my stuff off it tho. I took it in to the best brain surgon around he thinks there is a chance. We will see. 


I've been real busy so no time to get the laptop all updated and passwords for all the sites and evrything like that.  Being without a computer is a really bad thing anymore.  But it did save me from some of the frustration of these wipsaw markets.


BUt I thought since it has been awhile since I put up anything on the dairy trade this would be a good time. Third cutting starts up again on the 26th and it looks like oats are gonna be ready about the same time.  Corn looks good around here. Were there was to much water earlier it isn't so hot and every field has a few potholes or stunted corn it seems.  But I think we are setting pretty good. I just wish we wouldn't keep getting rain all the time. We need a good 10 day drought to sink these roots deeper as the N just keeps moving lower into the soil profile.


But these markets are geting very interesting.


You guys have done a good job of hashing over the grain markets and I have to agree with Nox this is a dollar play right now. Just the mere words uttered from the orifice of the fed brought giddieness to the gold market which immediatly spiled over into the commods. However the meat and dairy sector have been taking some hits. Due to the fact that as oil goes higher there is less disposable income to buy food with which is seen as negative to the value added ag products. 


THe wasde report had a lot of interesting things to say about poultry,red meat, and dairy. It seems that poultry, and egg sets are set to decline into the coming year as those producers are feeling the pinch the most. with such a small margin per bird these costs are not giving them any room right now.


Pork while in the black don't seem to be adding sows just geting more efficient with higher pigs per litter.  I know out here in Iowa that there will be fewer barns filled come this fall as the independent guys with land are not going to fill backup barns when they can sell $6+ corn this fall.  And pork at the meat case has stayed very competitive.


Beef is gonna be the game changer for all the meats and the dairy case to.  With the huge liquidation that is coming on from the south and south west especially Tx, Okl., colo, and Kansas. We are gonna see that nomber keep falling. CUll cow prices while not as high as earlier this spring are still high enough that many are selling them instead of risking the potential of having to purchase lots of feed to get thru the winter.  While this is pushing big numbers into feedlots early it is gonna make a hole big enough to drive a mack truck thru later on.


Dairy prices are also holding there own. Those with low fixed costs are making a killing right now especially if they grow their own feed. Those with lots of purchased feed and or high fixed costs are wondering how much longer this can last.  With July class three at $21 AND SOME CHANGE i STILL THINK WE HAVE A 50/50 CHANCE OF GETTING OVER 21.40 BY MONTHS END. WE HAD A BETTER CHANCE BEFORE THE BAFFOON AT THE FED TALKED TO THE BAFFOONS ON CAPITAL HILL BUT I STILL THINK WE HAVE A CHANCE. 

I locked in some protection on a percentage of my milk for the next three months however I pulled my offer on the last three  months of the year thinking it would come up so far it has moved about 60 cents in my direction.  THe dairy futures market hasn't done a very good job of trying to entice future milk production for 7 months now the market has been rising into the nearbys with defereds significantly lower. I should be buying calls in here and then selling later on but I just haven't the faith that this trend will continue.


Heat that is forcasted for much of the midsectin of the country should continue to pressure milk production some. However We've gotten pretty good at mitigating it's affects and as long as we can cool down to below 70 at night the cows don't seem to suffer that much.  Our milk production has held pretty steady. 


In all the mix is the rumors of bad cheese at southwest milk plants and slow downs in others as there isn't enough milk to fill all the needs. Here we are about 5 weeks from school opening back up in many places and there is already talk of milk shortages. One Idaho milk plant claims to be operatng at 85% capcity. I haven't been able to verify that but it is from a pretty reliable source.


So in the end we sit back and wait to see what the american consumer has to offer going forward.  THe wasde report calls for more milk next year. I think that is laughable. With the reduction in the beef herd I think cull prices stay strong. If that is the case geting dairy man to increase milk cow numbers has the same chance as my ole computer getting past the death panel here at home........ slm and none!


Be safe guys and gals maybe I'll get the photo stuff loaded on this laptop so I can put up some more pics. Don't hold your breath tho!

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6 Replies
Veteran Advisor

Re: from the Parlor pit 7-14

Good to hear from you again JR.  Glad its justr the computewr facing the death panels, and not you!!!   Having grown up on a family dairy  ( I could not wait to get away from milking 2x a day)  I enjoy reading your perspective on markets and  seeing the pics you post.  Keep it up

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Senior Contributor

Re: from the Parlor pit 7-14

I can sympathize with you about the computer.

Just went through that a month ago.

Fortunately my daughter had one I could use for many things but no book keeping etc until new one arrived.

Then since I was persuaded to switch to a MAC I had to learn how to use it.

Old computer had 2 drives.

1 had old records (and pictures) on it and they uploaded  no problem. It is still plugged in here and I can go to it for more files as I need them.

Biggest problem was other drive would not work and it had a lot of my spreadsheets and word documents on it that I use regularly and so I am still without many useful tools.

My IT specialist is working on it.

I might get better service if he did not call me dad but he assures me we will eventually get everything back.

BTW I now have a new backup running too.

Right beside the computer so I just need offsite to be fully protected. Is that possible?

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Esteemed Advisor

Re: from the Parlor pit 7-14

Good to hear from you again JR. I actually made a post asking if anybody had heard from you or not. I thought you might have decided to leave Iowa and come back to Michigan to farm haha!

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Veteran Contributor

Re: from the Parlor pit 7-14

Hey JR good to hear some dairy news again. Sad dairy day here yesterday. The potbellys were busy hauling away the 699 head of the neighboring dairy's cows. Actually they were Agstars cows since the owners gave them back the keys last month. This was a well managed nearly 10 year old Dutch dairy that just could not hang on any longer from the last two years debacle. The owners are great guys who worked their tails off chasing the American dream. The cows headed to SW Ohio to another dairy.

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Veteran Advisor

Re: from the Parlor pit 7-14

That is sad indeed.  I know of a dairy close by that is also going to be shutting it's doors this month. THe liquidation will run hard now as last year many were able to lock in corn at half of todays prices and milk was only aboout 4=5 dollars less. With double the corn price and fuel. along with protien being out of this world. Many willnot get funded to buy up corn for silage and for cheaper fall harvest priced corn. 


Many have kicked the can down the road as far as they can. August is gonna get nasty.

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Senior Advisor

Re: from the Parlor pit 7-14

The american consumer is telling you they will pay you more for less. Kum & Go an Iowa corp sells 2 gallon for $6 at their convenience store and you don't have to walk two blocks to the back og Walmart super stores.


Sorry to hear about your computer meltdown. That can be so frustrating.  I wonder if some of these firms that sell corrective programming try to infect our computers on purpose.

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