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Veteran Advisor

fromthe parlor pit

Well guys yesterday was kind ugly but maybe it sets up for a turn around tuesday.  I have been real busy with hayin here so have only skimmed a few things.  My gut is still we are in an uptrend I think one thing psitive for us might be the upcoming SMP futures trading set to open on the 28th. THat may be the most interesting thing to watch going forward.  Remember SMP is also traded in the fontera auction. 

I have been no fan of the CME' board over the thin trade and the seeming ease with which a few can manipulte that board. With the advent of the SMP contract we bring a prouct that is a standard for the world. Therefore it should stimulate more trading. 

The million dollar question is this. 

 WIll the CME start out with the last price of the fonterra auction or some other formula?

Secondly will we move to the fonterra price or willl the fonterra price(which is to say the world price) move to us?  Remeber we are running about 30-40 cents per pound under them.  Of all the things going on in the milk markets this may be the most impacting to price outside of weather concerns.

Well thats all from the parlor this morning we will be chopping hay all day. Hope to get up some pics real soon. Thanks for reading and remember this information is soley the property of one really tired dairy farmer.   Anything in these proceding paragraphs which makes sense to you is only a coincidence and should be looked upon as an amusing moment early in the morning.    Oh yea buy any extra gallon of milk this week all us dairy folk would really appreciate that. JR 

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Veteran Advisor

Re: fromthe parlor pit

Well guys What the heck happened?  Milk was production was way upSmiley Surprised 1.5% in the 50states for april.  But even with that we are still higher than we were in march and april as far as price. I keep thinking of one word resistance.  There seems to be more to the bottom than to the upside.  I will expand on that some more later. JR

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Contributor

Re: fromthe parlor pit

 

Hi JR

Does US dairyfarmers simply feed their cows richer or is the explanation mainly more cows in the barns?

This is a q on the rising milkproduction...

 

Rates up over here and USD are amazingly strong......putting up soy costs.

best w

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Veteran Advisor

Re: fromthe parlor pit

You know I keep wondering the same thing. 

I think the answer is a little of both along with some cooler temps which have also helped.  I think back to the dairy diversion days of the mid 80's.  Farmers sold off a lot of cows to get under production caps but found thier cattle just kept milking. So the lesson learned was that they/we had kept a lot of cattle which were not earning thier keep and when we culled them we found greater cow comfort for the rest of the animals  helped to increase milk it usually took  a greater amount culled than what was previously expected as good doing cows in more comfortable enviro made up for the cow that was now gone. 

I do think there was some discount in feed stuffs in the early march period that allowed guys to push cattle a little harder. Those are my quick thoughts.I will say this I don't expect this to last.  JR

 

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Senior Contributor

Re: fromthe parlor pit

RAY. G says "With all the negative outside influences in the markets, it has made it real difficult for the grains to show any signs of life"

VS supply/demaND AND a fast advancing crop. 

 

What is 300 es/use worth in beans? etc

 

Art 

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