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jeremey.frost
Frequent Contributor

game changing

game is changing from a supply game to a demand driven game................which should make thinks even more volatile....................

demand has also been a thing that seems like it is here one day..........and just completely gone the next

it seems at times buyers will pay anything they have to one day to get thier hands on a product...........yet as soon as they get comfortable you can't give stuff away............i think we our tight situation that type of volatilty could easliy hit our big markets.............hopefully it just ends up squezzing the funds..........getting them long and short at the wrong time...............but the stages appear to be set for some big moving markets

on of the next big things to watch will be the Sept stocks and small grains report..........everyone is already talking about a bearish report...........ideas of the wheat crop bigger..........which i aggre..........but the bigger thing is the ending corn/soybean stocks..........many think that will include plenty of extra harvested corn/beans.............that will be used instead of the old crop..............it should make things real interesting

i get a call every quarter on our elevator stocks........this time the lady made sure to ask if this was all old crop stocks..............i don't recall her asking me that last year

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3 Replies
Mizzou_Tiger
Senior Advisor

Re: game changing

thanks frost.....

 

it appears basis may be next up to do the work.......

 

IMO demand is far from dead, even though those that try to watch it and preach it have no clue.........

 

exports on the soya side are quite strong when you look at the nose trimming the USDA did........

 

corn is weak and we knew and know that..........but IMO exports could go to 0 and we still use up everything domestically minus about a 600-700M carry.........

 

grains nose dive too far and demand will eat it up in buckets as they are living hand to mouth and may show up with a few extra buckets to catch a breath.........also, this is JMO here.........but I am hearing and seeing a lot of "barns" going up........almost like livestock is anticipating cheaper feed and tighter demand for their product.........again JMO, but if its even half true, we will squeeze things pretty hard.........

 

and as you know.........many are looking at SA crop already.........and I am sure have dreams of sugar plums and 170 on 98........

 

have we become comfortable enough with disasters to tank this thing???????????

 

 

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sw363535
Honored Advisor

Re: game changing

Crop Insurance Losses Begin To Mount
 
09/14/2012
 

Thousands of U.S. farmers are filing crop insurance claims this year as drought and triple-digit temperatures burn up crops in the Corn Belt.
 
     The final cost to the taxpayer-subsidized program has yet to be determined, but Kansas State University is forecasting underwriting losses at nearly $15 billion. That figure is based on anticipated claims totaling $25 billion.
 
     Extension specialist G.A. Barnaby says the Agriculture Department's Risk Management Agency cut premiums for corn and soybeans in many states, expecting new technologies to eliminate or reduce big losses.
 
     More than $1.42 billion in insurance claims have been paid so far, with the bulk still to come.
 
     Texas is leading the nation with $518.6 million in claims, followed by Kansas with $223 million. Colorado is third with $66 million.
 

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roarintiger1
Honored Advisor

Re: game changing

Don't crop insurance companies have insurance?   Smiley Wink

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