girls! girls!! girls!!!
many many moons ago when i was young (and had hair)....a group of us young bucks went to the big city...
We all piled in the model t....well maybe a bit newer, and we journeyed to the bright lights and action the
big city could provide, compaired to our little one horse town that didn't have a stop light....but a flashing
caution light...at one intersection....
There we saw all the things we had just herd about.....the night clubs, the girls at the night clubs, the drinks
the card playing and the one armed slot machines.......
my dad, knowing the trip was planned, pulled me aside before we left....and give me some wisdom.....
things where, are not what they seem, you have to hold onto your money, everyone will try to cheat
you, and the things you do in that one day, can haunt you for the rest of your life........
Well we all went....some interesting story lines were made....and then some things....well the statute of limitations
may not have passed yet.....
ok ishmeal....here is how this relates to markets.......I can see alot of simulartity between our little trip to
town and the markets....The markets are painted by many as "the action hub"...fortunes made and lost in
a single day...if you can make it there you and make it anywhere....the markets and their temption of profits
touch all men...the same as those girls dancing in the clubs....the eyes at times become glazed over as
the numbers flash, the same as watching the girls dance to the music........
you have to hold onto your money, everyone will try to cheat you.......i rember seeing poker games, with fellows
smoking cigars.....also saw a dice game....and something i never did see before....a shell game....i stood in
amazement how freely people threw their money on the table....and how most of the time they lost.....I guess
I was lucky.....i didn't have a whole lot of cash with me, so i didn't get to play....I remember the fellow
at the marble game hollering out, we've always got a winner.......simular to the boards.....you see
fellows put alot of money down....and "know" they are right.....and like the boards....on every trade
there is a winner and a looser.....as they say, if the markets go down, someone made money, if they go up
someone made money....
Then lastly the slot machines.....you put your money into this box, pull a handle, and you watch the screen to see
what your fate will be.......winner or looser.....all lemons or all 7's ? (although i think all lemons is a winner).
fast forward, my folks used to go to an area casino....they played the nickel machines....you put your money
into a box, push a button, and stare at the screen and watch the numbers go buzzying by.....then your
fate would flash on the same screen that you have been so intently watching.......
sounds like modern trade today.....we no longer have the card games, with men smoking cigars, our people in the
corner, hollering and yelling with excitement, on if somone rolled snake eyes, or pulled out a royal flush or hit 21.....
no, the excitment and human involvement is gone......the markets have now become a slot machine....that
you put your money into , click the mouse or hit the return key.....and you watch the screen, to determine
if you made money or not............
They tell me all of the above is a game of chance.......i feel more and more each day that the cbot (the only game in town)
is becomming more and more a game of chance, rather than a true marketplace that helps discover the value of
a given item......there is really no rhyme nor reason why the market moves.....the fundmentals are just something, that
if they get out of wack one way or another, they could have an impact.....but, explain to me this.....last day of
trading last week, wheat was down hard, I believe about 9 cents.......today, up about the same......what happened
in the first place, to cause it to go down, and then to go up......""the trade""........huh ????????
maybe the same thing happens in vegas, when the dealer "claps in" and "claps out"........new dealer, things change
but back to the game........
We had it pounded into our skulls that the market finds "the value" of an item.......many think.....well 98.9% anyhow, believe
when you produce a product, you add on the cost of production to your product and sell it....that is the way it workss
in mos businesses......but i challange you.....look back thru your charts, look back thru your market comments.........
show me where it cited the market was up today due to the rise in fertilizer, and seed, and that JD and IHC announced
a 5% increase accross the board for parts and new equipment.........have you ever herd of the markets going
UP due to the cost of production ???????
BUT we do see that if there is a problem somewhwere things move.......or "profit taking" or "end of month statement settlements"
or "contract expirations"...........those take the money, those are the things to move the market.....and these wide
eyed country boys, who are playing with the fellows, who do this every day......don't even have a chance......
you tell me on the wheat market, the price must go down........yet........the last several years the wheat has not been
worth a $^@, 4 years in a row, some fellows have saw nothing but an insurance check.......understand most of
the wheat is used here...so we got by with what we id produce, with a "little help from our friends", the white
wheat people........yet........you can stand there and tell me that it's my fult.......when just before harvest you were
telling me how bad things were.......wheat was over $6, and they said going higher........and now it's here ???
talk about the smoke filled place the young country bucks when to see at the big city......same thing....
they were swendled with their hard earned money, from the sweat off their backs......to be taken advancge of
by a game, who's players play each day.......and each day try to beat the other one, and then they both take
advantage of the country boy..........
for some reason........a song by dewight yoakem keeps going thru my head....."" turn it on, turn it up, turn me loose"
Re: girls! girls!! girls!!!
Elcheapo, this reads just like your rant about the coop. instead of going to Vegas you should have been studying your Econ 101 textbook. As commodity producers we are price takers not price makers. Ford, gm, Apple, etc can figure their cost of production and add a margin because they can differentiate their product from their competition and can convince their customer to buy their brand. Well my wheat corn and soybeans are just like yours and for that matter just like Argentina,s Brazil's, Canada,s, ukraines, France's and everyone else's. We are price takers and when price is high all of us overproduce and price falls. That is the way of commodities no matter if it is corn, copper, butter, argon, cobalt, tallow or any other non differentaitable commodity. Eventually production will get cut and price will rise again.
Do you really expect the cbot to be 6.50 on wheat when every export competitor is willing to sell for 5.50.
So let me ask you this how are you taking advantage of these low commodity prices? Are you locking in your deco payments? Are you locking in feed needs? Since fert and fuel are commodities are you preparing to hedge them against rising prices for the next 2 growing seasons? What about interest rates which are historically cheap are you hedging them? I can guarantee you that while you muse poetically about the cbot your competition is preparing an action plan to do just that. And in fact they are going to lock in some of these historically low prices on the very cbot that you muse so well about. Jmo
Re: girls! girls!! girls!!!
Who have hedged out their fert and energy for
2 years....I'm not sure on feed....some say were
Not at bottom yet. Can't figure out what deco
Again....the markets are not markets...throw away
That economics book that was written on
Theory written in the 40's...where there was
Open outcry and computers made up and trades in a matter of seconds to make 2 cents profit....or movement in the market is due to end of month, end of contact... Etc
Maybe nobody has not told you yet but in the commodity she'll game, there is no marble, its all slight of hand