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09-22-2017 07:24 AM
Lots of complaining in the old free market US when the market does not react to big sales.......
Why do we care? We, through our soccer mom congress created the pant suit world utopia where the American model has been distributed to everyone through borders so open you can drive a corporation into cheaper labor without a passport.
Stop acting suprised when the market doesn't react to a huge bean sale... or another average or below average "record" corn crop.
Stop blaming usda reports. Usda understands the new world order even if the US voter doesn't...... which means "even if the elected officials disagree, the unionized life long folks who run usda know that we live with open borders whether we want too or not.
The bean sale was not real. It was not a sale of the worlds supply of soybeans. It was a transfer of soybeans from one of the world's "warehouses" to a different world "warehouse". The usda and SEC folks have been trained and understand that no matter who is elected to lead, this is a global socially progressive world, marching to the beat of the cell phone and the folks who control the information. They all live in a far more advanced inner circle than average producers do.
(Think about it long enough and you will start understanding why western civilization is hated by the folks who repressent the isolationist societies of the world for what it has done to the world of independent thinking.)
back on subject............ Here is where I have been in denial........ Thinking that the warehouse in China was not as accessable to Cargil in Wichita, Ks for bean meal processing and if nothing else basis would reflect the freight back from the eastern warehouse..... But then I forget the new world order effect. Cargill and their partners, will process those same beans in China, at far cheaper costs, and sell the processed material back to the "World" ( almost wrote US---I am really in denial) marked "Non-GMO and Organic" or whatever it takes for top dollar US and European markets.
But overall the world supply of soybeans did not change. And until Saturn sends space ships and transports the chinese warehouse volume to another planet, and even then, there is no US grain market...........Get in line US.......... Get in line.
09-22-2017 09:25 AM
hope i can find a contract I can live with..... and lean on cost controls to survive until a global economic meltdown or War changes the model.
Hoping to catch on with the National Parks system as a Buffalo Commons worker.
Or maybe move to SA and work on one of the "divert the amazon" projects
We are the highest cost producer we have no marketing model that will work in an over supplied market.....
We have been chasing the carrot of "feeding the world" all our lives and spending too much to get there.
I could rely on the Iowa model of land inflation is the only hope of having anything to show for a lifetime of work, then claiming we have no land costs to make it look profitable.
09-22-2017 04:09 PM
Amen SW......yes cost are a bugger. I'm working on a deal to get and maybe sell some RR1 beans for $23 a bag, and Liberty
about $34 a bag........now before you all start to howl, that it must be crap......these varieties are not that old and used to do good.
now, you put that together with a good PRE herbicide program, and maybe use some older chemistry, (that still works) and
a bit cheaper, then test your soil. So many now rent ground and just "put stuff on", knowing that Ethel doesn't understand all
that, but has to pay her share of the herbicide.....but if you were wise, have it tested (and use the land grant university lab,
first they are cheaper, second, they don't come up with goofy numbers and recommendations) several times I've sent the
same sample to the university and the "labs", and you couldn't believe they were the same sample !!!
then when you get things back you know where your at....if you have a planter or drill with dry fertilizer on it, wonderful !!
usually cheaper on phos in dry, but if you have to use liquid, remember the rule of thumb, if banding, you can
get by with 66 to 70% of the recommendations..
I just don't understand things anymore (I really do, but since everything is crazy, therefore you would be crazy also !)((no comments please !))
going back to the seed....it all amounts to rainfall and weed control.....granted genetics does play a part, but, if you don't have the
other two, the seed you plant makes not difference.
where I'm at it's dry.........the spring/summer crops are toast.....now you look twards next year.....we are already behind
the 8 ball, being in a moderate drought.........so we have to double the rainfall next year to catch up....doubt if
09-25-2017 07:14 AM
sw...I wish I had time to tear into your posting...but must go cut beans in a few. With land's increase in cash generated from ever increasing yields (not from currency inflation that is an added free bonus), you really do only have to break event to die rich. Many farmers have done it for generations.
I maintain that global ag, mostly due to our ridiculous intellectual property rights laws, is over-investing in research by about 50%. Farmers doing the same, adding irrigation in IL to grow more 3.50 corn, what? The tax laws force it on folks as well.
Off to work, greatly respect your rough year, we haven't had a great one either, just think your post is a little soft on the facts.
09-25-2017 08:20 AM
Well now we have the tiger by the tail...2+ billion bushel carryover and apparently the 4th recordish large crop on the way, so what happens in the fall of `18 with a 5th recordish crop in the bull pen and a 3 billion bushel carryover?...and `19 ...and `20 ...and `21...........? Someone, somewhere is going to have to cry "Uncle!" .
It all has me scratching my head, I honestly didn`t think people could grow corn outside of north central Iowa But here we hear "I`m out in western Wyoming and I got a 400 bushel per acre crop coming on my eastern slope of the Grand Teton field!!!!" WTH???
But I saw a map of the year 2100, Iowa will be a prime cotton growing area, don`t know but seed genetics and God caused climate change has moved crop production in some very unconventional areas...and they make it work. I dunno. Maybe it`ll be NCIA crying uncle.
09-25-2017 08:52 AM
Are you and your fellow farmers willing to decrease corn acreage by 5-7% in 2018 and shift those acres to beans??
It has happened before, about 10 years ago...
need to reduce domestic corn supply enough that basis becomes more of a factor in the price of corn....ie; narrower basis levels instead of the mega wide levels we are seeing today......in the US we have the bulk of our corn staying in the domestic market, which means a small change in corn supply can have a big effect on basis because of the inelastic nature of our corn consumption in the US
now, I recognize that this could affect bean basis levels, but you have some choices about when to set those basis levels....and many of you are saying beans are as profitable as corn
you going to do something different, or continue to fit that definition of insanity (doing the same thing over and over, and expecting a different result)???
09-25-2017 09:32 AM
Beans aren't the answer either.
The world's more over supplied with them than is admitted.
Milo and wheat is in the same boat...too much .
Ameranth is supposed to be good for you, I hear the Palmer variety is an excellent hardy species...
Maybe a side crop of poppies and Marianna?
09-25-2017 09:37 AM
so, what is wrong with putting some pressure on SA to reduce bean production if the world is producing too much??
we have to do something different while waiting for mother nature to solve our excess production issues
part of the problem, or part of the solution??
what is yours??
09-25-2017 09:52 AM - edited 09-25-2017 09:59 AM
I'm defiantly undeniably positively part of the problem.
No markets for an alternative crop, more bins full of old crop corn and beans than any sane person would ever consider proper.
Going to be biblical around here soon.
Guess what ...going to do the liberal thing next year and do it again next year and ...
Edit on further reflection ,
Maybe I'm part of the solution?
Overwhelming supply, weed out the high cost producers regardless of where they are?
We are global now so no difference, right?