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Frequent Contributor

going to be an interesting year.

well the markets keep going down, there is going to be a big crop the experts say. this is all projection not in the bin yet. one thing i do know is mother nature can fool you every time

. i like reading the post on here because there is always two sides one for a big crop and one for less.  i think everyone needs to ask themselves how many times they have been disapointed in the final yield. i bet more times disapointed then satisfied. 

just wondering if all the contracts got filled from previous years that guys couldn't fill because they didn't have the grain to deliver.

next thing is if there is going to be a big crop and low prices, are you going to plant a crop next year that won't pay out? looks like a double edge sword to me.

massive profits have been made in the market the last few months,and the farmer is going to pay the price.

one question i have is guys say i have this years crop contracted at a higher price then the market so i will be just fine. well how secure is that contract???? are they going to pay you 6 dollars when they can buy it for under 4 ??????. or is the market scaring guys so they sell now at a low price and the buyer can capitalize later when the price goes back up. i can remember not too many years ago alot of farms didn't get paid on contracts.

 

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26 Replies
Veteran Advisor

Re: going to be an interesting year.

Yes, "they" will pay your $6, $5, or $4.....or whatever price you have it contracted at....if you are that nervous about your grain purchaser, you likely should not be doing business with them....

 

in the end, it will be about market's reaction via "price"......

 

and that is a pretty rough patch right now.......good growing weather, cool temps, funds too long.......talk about a string of dominoes!!

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Honored Advisor

Re: going to be an interesting year.

This is going to sound a little negative but I could see the wheat planted acres out west getting pretty big this fall as a hedge to the market.  A cheap input crop, to my way of thinking half the irrigated corn acres could get planted giving the option to the produer to graze it , destroy it in the spring, or harvest it or a combination of those.  But it also delays decision until spring and irritates seed sales.  Which is about all a producer can do for that cost....... be irritating.

In current markets we should see a lot of bean seed in demand for spring.  If there are any old school thinkers left.

 

Also the current market should increase those hunting and fishing trips sponsored by seed and chemical sales.  

 

Running figures and doing year to year comparisons.  Looking at seed bills.  There is really no competition left within that industry, is there?  

 

And many of the reasons for buying gmo in the first place have disappeared.  ------ like insecticide savings,  plant tollerence, etc.

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Senior Advisor

Re: going to be an interesting year.

Some fringe farmers may switch out of corn and soybeans to crops they expect to have a better return.  My guess is the rest of the corn belt will plant corn and soybeans about as usual.  There will likely be some fine-tuning on fertilizer and maybe some measureable reduction in fertilizer in some places with the hope that yields won't suffer for one year.  There may be some changes in seed selection to lower cost products.  Maybe there will be some close figuring on weed control.  All in all, is is possible that this input minimilzation may have a small affect on yield.

But, to get to your point, I think for ther heart of the corn belt it will be as close as possible to business as usual with a sharper pencil next year.

But, it may be harder to develop a marketing plan that pencils out above COP.  This year that was possible.  Next year?

Senior Contributor

Re: going to be an interesting year.

Theres that word again projection just keeps popping up.
Senior Contributor

Re: going to be an interesting year.

Your comments about whether a grain buyer will pay you for higher priced contracted grain shows just how little you understand of today's grain merchandising. 

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Honored Advisor

Re: going to be an interesting year.

It has happened, and will happen again.

 

"Today's grain merchandising"  ----- nice phrase.    It is no different than Yesterdays merchandising..

 

 

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Veteran Advisor

Re: going to be an interesting year.

what is it that "will happen"??

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Honored Advisor

Re: going to be an interesting year.

Someone doesn't get paid on a contract

 

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Veteran Contributor

Re: going to be an interesting year.

futures markets are or = projections

Next about fringe farmers with corn acerage. If we didnt have  enthanol would have the corn acres expanded up into S. and N. Dak.

They should be planting wheat up there.